In December 2021 I was less than a year into crypto and sitting on the biggest gains of my life. FTM, LUNA, a handful of alts I’d been early to. I remember the exact thought: that’s a tidy profit, maybe I should sell some. And then the other one: we’re going higher. So I held. Some of it was locked in staking pools, so in 2022 when I finally wanted out, I couldn’t. I rode the whole thing back down. Tuition fees, I call it now. I’ve got the scars to prove it.

Everyone I talk to this year is trying to buy the low. Is it in, will it dip further, should I go all in now. Nobody asks when to sell. I didn’t either, and that’s the question that actually cost me.

So this week I tested it. I took the CSH Score history, every day of Bitcoin since 2012, and ran three hypothetical investors through it, each putting A$500 a week into Bitcoin from January 2017. Nearly ten years, three bull markets, three bears. One never sells. One panics and sells, then buys back late, the way most people actually behave. One follows a written rule. The rule finished with 74% more Bitcoin and A$1.6 million more than never selling. It’s below, and the version I’d run this cycle is at the end.

Start your 14 day free trial

CSH Risk Dashboard

• CSH Score closed the week at 36.8, down from last Sunday. Lower than on 68% of days since 2012.

• Bitcoin: US$77,303 in our history on Sunday, about A$107,800. Last Monday’s weekly candle closed at US$80,339, right on the 50-week moving average, and this week it’s trading back under it. The 50-week MA sits at about US$79,600 (TradingView, Bitstamp weekly, 13 Sep).

• Support below: the bull market support band, roughly US$70,100 to US$71,800 on the same chart, and a CSH Score of 30 is about US$69.7k today. Those two levels are stacked on top of each other.

• Golden cross, two weeks on: I said the first month after one is usually a sell-off and the year after is usually up. The sell-off part arrived on schedule.

• My plan: waiting. It buys between 10 and 30. It stopped on 22 August when the Score crossed 30 and it hasn’t placed an order since.

What the reading changes: nothing, yet. Bitcoin is being squeezed between the 50-week MA above and the support band below. Rejections off the 50-week MA in past cycles tended to happen fast, within a few weeks, so the longer we hang around just under it, the better I like it. The signal I’m waiting on to call the bear finished is consecutive weekly closes above the 50-week MA. Yes, waiting for that means missing part of the move. That is the exact reason a plan buys the lows on a schedule instead of on a feeling.

Three investors, one rule

Here’s the set-up. Three hypothetical investors, each putting A$500 into Bitcoin every Monday from 2 January 2017 to now. That’s 506 weeks and A$253,000 each.

The first never sells (HODL). A$500 in, every Monday, no exceptions.

The second does what most people actually do. Buys every week, panic-sells everything after a 50% fall, and buys back once the CSH Score is over 60 again, when it feels safe.

The third follows a written rule. Buys from the reserve while the CSH Score is under 35, larger buys the lower it goes. Sells 10% of the Bitcoin held every week the Score is 80 or higher, 20% above 90. The money from the sales sits in the reserve for the next time the Score is under 35.

Never sold: 19.87 BTC, worth A$2.14 million. Eight and a half times the money in, after a 77% fall along the way.

Sold the bottom, bought back the top: no Bitcoin, A$458,000 in cash. Less than double the money in. Four round trips: sold at A$10k in early 2018, bought back at A$13k, sold at A$6k, bought back at A$12k, sold at A$43k in May 2022, bought back at A$67k, sold at A$93k this March. I want to be clear that every one of those moves felt sensible on the day. That’s what makes it the most common path.

Followed the rule: 34.56 BTC plus A$35,000 in cash, worth A$3.76 million. Nearly fifteen times the money in. Worst fall 37%.

Seventy-four per cent more Bitcoin than never selling. A$1.6 million more. Half the drawdown. Same money in.

What the rule actually did, and when it looked wrong

It sold 42 times, A$3.3 million worth, at an average of A$105,000. Twenty-eight of those sales were in 2021 at an average of A$57,000. Nine were between March and December 2024 at an average of A$133,000. Four were in January and February 2025 at an average of A$160,000. Then it stopped, because the CSH Score never got back to 80. The October 2025 top scored 75.5.

So the rule sold a year early and well under the top. At the top it was holding a third as much Bitcoin as the never-seller and A$2.6 million in cash, watching the price run to A$190,000 without it. For most of 2025 the rule looked like the wrong call, and if I’d been running it I’d have copped it in the replies.

Then the Score fell under 35 in February this year and the rule bought back, 23 Mondays at an average of A$96,000. Add the 2022 buys at an average of A$30,000 and it bought A$3.4 million worth of Bitcoin back at an average of A$65,000. Sold at 105, bought at 65. That gap is the extra Bitcoin.

This is the thing about a working exit rule. It sells while everyone’s still bullish, it looks stupid for a while, and it’s right over the whole cycle. In 2021 I had nothing to follow, so I followed the little voice instead.

Even from the worst week to start

Run the same three investors from the Monday after the November 2021 top. Never selling ends with 2.02 BTC. The rule ends with 2.65 BTC, 31% more, and its worst fall was 23% instead of 50%. At the October 2025 top the never-seller was ahead by A$69,000. Eleven months later he isn’t.

Jake’s Workbench

Two things from the model this week.

One. I asked for the whole grid: buy under 25, 30, 35 or 40, sell from 60 through 90, 5% to 25% a week. Buying under 35 beat buying under 30 from every start date. Under 30 spends too long waiting; only 22 days of 2023 scored under 30. My plan buys between 10 and 30. The history says I’m a touch too strict, and I haven’t changed it yet. Selling from 75 and from 80 tied; from 70 was slightly behind. The exact number barely matters. Having one is what matters.

Two. My SMSF made its first Bitcoin buy in January 2023, with the CSH Score at 15. So I modelled a fund starting then with a hypothetical A$150,000 rollover. Bought on a flat monthly schedule over two years, it ends up with 2.69 BTC, worth about A$290,000 today. The same A$150,000 on a plan that buys harder while the Score is low ends up with 4.79 BTC, worth about A$517,000. Seventy-eight per cent more Bitcoin from the same cash, and the fund is three and a half times its starting size in under four years. My own buying in 2023 was messier than either of those, and I bought cautiously into the cheapest Bitcoin of the decade. Caution was the expensive option.

Product note: the app’s Today page was rebuilt this week. Your plan’s buy range drawn on the Score, each plan in one sentence with the next order in large type, and your record of orders against the Score on one chart. More on that once it settles.

Quick Hits

• The US Fed decides rates on Thursday at 4am our time. After Friday’s US inflation print, markets are pricing a rate rise, not a cut, at close to 90% (CME FedWatch via CBS News, 11 Sep). My plan has no Fed input. It has a Score range.

• The US Senate votes on Wednesday at 4:15am our time on whether to even proceed with the CLARITY Act, the crypto market structure bill. It needs 60 votes. Prediction markets had it under 20% a week ago.

• The RBA meets on Tuesday 29 September. Futures were pricing about an 80% chance of a rise as of 7 September.

• From 1 July 2027 the 50% CGT discount is replaced for individuals, trusts and partnerships by cost-base indexation and a 30% minimum tax on gains. It passed in June. The change doesn’t name super funds; the ATO’s SMSF page still shows the one-third discount. If your exit plan runs into 2027, this belongs in the conversation with your accountant.

• Mt Gox’s creditor repayment deadline is 31 October. It’s a deadline, not a scheduled sale.

Week Ahead

Two levels and one date. Above: the 50-week MA at about US$79,600. Consecutive weekly closes above it and I flip bull in public. Below: the support band and a Score of 30, stacked around US$70k. If the Score comes back under 30, my plan starts buying again on the Monday and I’ll tell you the size. The date is Thursday 4am, the Fed. Whatever it does, the plan’s answer is the same as it was on Monday.

The Close

Here’s the playbook for this cycle, as plainly as I can put it. Buy on a schedule while Bitcoin is historically cheap, meaning a CSH Score under 30 to 35. Stop when it isn’t. Sell a slice a week while it’s historically expensive, meaning a Score of 75 to 80 and up. Keep the proceeds for the next time it’s cheap. Write all of it down before you need it, because you will not be able to think straight when the Score hits 85 and your portfolio is up four times.

Livermore said it a hundred years ago: be right and sit tight. Sitting tight is easy when you’ve already written down what you’ll do.

If you want to write yours down, the whole app is free for two weeks: the live CSH Score, the Plan Builder and your record against the Score.

Start your 14 day free trial

Crypto Super Hub is general information and education only. Nothing here is financial advice, and it doesn’t take your objectives, financial situation or needs into account. Crypto is volatile and you can lose money. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. Do your own research and consider speaking with a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions. We hold Bitcoin ourselves, so assume we’re biased.

Everyone I talk to thinks a golden cross is the most bullish thing that can happen to a Bitcoin chart. It’s days away, so I checked.

A golden cross is when the average price over the last 50 days climbs above the average over the last 200. It’s a lagging indicator. It doesn’t predict a trend, it confirms one that started months ago. And everyone remembers what came after the famous ones. What nobody talks about is the first month, which is often a sell-off.

So instead of going off vibes, I went through all 12 golden crosses in our score history, which runs back to 2012, with the CSH Score alongside each one. Whether Bitcoin was higher or lower a month later turned out to be a coin flip. A year later was a different story, and the score on the day of the cross separated the ones that ran from the ones that didn’t.

The live score, your plan and the new My Plans page are all in the app, free to try right now:

Create your free CSH account

CSH Risk Dashboard

• CSH Score: 38.8, up 1.0 over seven days (37.8 last Sunday)

• Bitcoin: US$79,986, up 2.9% over seven days (app, 6 Sep)

• Band: 30 to 40, where Bitcoin has spent 14.4% of its history

• Percentile: bottom 35% since 2012

• Days with a CSH Score under 30 this bear: 112. Days under 20: 0

• 50-week moving average: about US$80,100, price sitting just under it

• Day 334 since the October 7 top. Day 365 is October 7

What the reading changes: nothing in my plan. It buys weekly with the CSH Score between 10 and 30 and waits above it, so it’s been waiting since the score crossed 30 on August 22. My bigger buys are parked under 20, and the score bottomed at 20.6 in July without getting there. A CSH Score of 30 maps to about US$70,200 today, which is also the bull market support band on the weekly chart. If a pullback comes, that’s the level I’m watching, because it’s where the plan switches back on.

Twelve golden crosses, scored

Here’s every one in our score history, which starts in 2012, with the CSH Score on the day it fired and where Bitcoin was a year later.

The first month is 50/50. Five of the twelve crosses were lower 30 days later, seven were higher. Five of the twelve also dropped more than 10% at some point in the first 90 days. April 2019 went up 46% in a month. February 2020 fell 39%. Whether Bitcoin goes up or down in the weeks after a golden cross is a coin flip. It has never been a reliable short-term buy signal.

A year later, the score is the tell. The CSH Score is our 0 to 100 read on whether Bitcoin is cheap or expensive against its own history back to 2012. Low means cheap. Six of the twelve crosses fired with the score between 15 and 50, meaning Bitcoin was still historically cheap when the signal came: July 2015, October 2015, April 2019, May 2020, February 2023, October 2023. All six were higher a year later, median gain 118%. Three crosses since 2021 fired with the score at 64 or above, Bitcoin already expensive. Two of those three lost money over the next year: 59% in 2021, 32% in 2025. Same pattern on the chart. The difference was whether the market was starting a move or finishing one.

The first cross after a bear market sometimes fakes. July 2015 and February 2020 were both the first cross after a low. Both reversed inside nine weeks, and both times the second attempt held: 878 days in 2015, 394 days in 2020. In 2019 and 2023 the first one held. Two of the last four recoveries needed a second go, so if this one reverses, that’s not the recovery ending.

The closest match to today is February 2023. CSH Score 37.6 at the cross, 38.8 now. Bitcoin dropped 12.5% over the following month and the score fell back to 32. A year later it was up 90%. I’m not saying this year copies that one. I’m saying the one time the signal fired with the score where it is now, Bitcoin fell for the first month and finished the year up 90%. Short-term bearish, long-term very bullish.

Jake’s Workbench

Tom shipped the new My Plans page from Europe this week, and it’s changed how I start the day.

The top of the page is one card. Mine this morning says: CSH Score 38.8, outside your range of 10 to 30, your plan says wait. The US$2,161 it would have bought this week stays in cash. Then an email lands each morning saying the same thing. Two questions answered before coffee: is the score inside my range, and if not, how far outside.

Below that is the plan’s own record. Three orders since June 24, all inside the range, average price US$63,215, with the CSH Score in the low 20s on every one of them. And below that, once your history is imported, every trade you’ve ever made plotted against the score on the day you made it, plus a bar chart of which score bands your money actually went in at.

That last chart is the honest one. Mine says 30.5% of my Bitcoin dollars went in at a score of 20 to 30, 30.5% at 30 to 40, and 39% at 60 to 80. That last 39% was all before we built the system. The plan exists so it never happens again.

An SMSF trustee DMed two feature requests this week: a confirmed-uptrend signal, and a long-term versus short-term read on a buy. Both are on the board. The founding cohort is 100 people, that number is real, and this is what your feedback does to the product.

Quick Hits

• US CPI lands Friday night our time (Friday 11 Sep, 8:30am ET). PPI the day before.

• The CLARITY Act gets its Senate procedural vote on Tuesday 15 September, 2:15pm ET. It needs 60 votes to proceed.

• The Fed decides on Wednesday 16 September US time, 4am Thursday here. The quiet period started yesterday.

• The concessional contributions cap went up to $32,500 on 1 July. If you salary sacrifice into a fund holding crypto, that’s the new ceiling.

• Scam and hack volume across the desk is rising every week. Unique passwords, a dedicated email for exchange accounts, 2FA on everything, and paste anything suspicious into Claude or ChatGPT before you act on it. A screenshot and the question “is this legit” is the cheapest security audit you’ll ever run.

Week Ahead

The golden cross will probably print between Tuesday and Wednesday, and every feed you follow will notice. The number I’m watching instead is the weekly close, Monday morning our time: a close over about US$80,100 is the first weekly finish above the 50-week average in this recovery, the signal that ended the last three bears. Below it, and I’m still watching US$70,200, the level where the CSH Score reads 30 and my plan starts buying again.

Then next week gets loud: the Senate vote Tuesday, the Fed early Thursday our time, quad witching Friday. Now is the week to be set up, not the week after.

The Close

Strong opinions, held loosely. I’ve got a strong one: I want a pullback into my range, and I think the FOMO I’m hearing on the phone every day says the market needs one. If Bitcoin closes a week above the 50-week average instead, I’m wrong, and I’ll change my mind that day rather than wait for the market to prove me right. There are no awards for being right in the markets. The only award is making money, and the way you keep it is a plan written down before the noise starts.

Write yours down this week. The score’s public, the plan builder’s free to try, and the market’s about to get busy.

Jake

Crypto Super Hub is general information and education only. Nothing here is financial advice, and it doesn’t take your objectives, financial situation or needs into account. Crypto is volatile and you can lose money. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. Do your own research and consider speaking with a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions. We hold Bitcoin ourselves, so assume we’re biased.

I got back from a week of fishing to the busiest desk I’ve seen since January.

Not busy with trades. Busy with paperwork. People rushing to open accounts, pass verification and land deposits while Bitcoin put in a 22.8% week, its biggest since March 2023. A few weeks ago I wrote that the time to get your house in order is before the market moves. This was the week that stopped being theoretical.

And now the whole market is staring at one level. Tonight’s issue is about that level, the three times a bear market has ended on it, and the one time it faked everyone out.

The CSH Score is 37.6. Mid cycle, up 5.4 on the week, and here’s what that means in practice: my plan stopped buying on August 22, when the score crossed 30 after 79 straight days below it. That’s not me making a call. That’s the plan doing what it was written to do.

See where the score sits today

CSH Risk Dashboard

• CSH Score: 37.6, Mid Cycle, +5.4 (+16.8%) on the week

• Percentile: bottom 33% of all readings since 2012

• Bitcoin: US$78,153 (A$109,002) +0.47% on the week after last week’s +22.8%

• Day 327 since the October top; the bear’s low so far is US$58,551 on July 1, a 53.1% drawdown

• 115 days this bear at a CSH Score of 30 or under, every single one of them in the 20–30 band, and the CSH Score never went below 20

What the reading changes: above 30, my scheduled buying is paused. Back under 30, it restarts mechanically. Under 20, the spare-cash tiers deploy. The score moved, the plan answered, I went fishing.

Has this happened before? The 50-week test

Bitcoin’s 50-week moving average sits at about $81,000. Price tagged it on Friday and backed off to 3% below. If you’ve been in crypto for a cycle or two you know why everyone’s watching it: in bulls this level is where dips go to bounce, and in bears it’s where rallies go to die.

So I went through our full score history, 5,322 days back to 2012, and pulled every bear market ending. Three of them: 2015, 2018–19, 2022–23. I wanted the honest answer to the question half the desk asked me this week. Has this happened before, and what happened next?

Here’s what the history shows.

Every one of the last three bears ended the same way: a first weekly close back above the 50-week MA after the bottom.

October 25, 2015.

May 5, 2019.

March 19, 2023.

Three different bears, three different worlds. Same signal. And in all three cases, the same three things followed. Price never closed a single week back below the level in the next six months. The bear-market low was never touched again. And twelve months later Bitcoin was up 55%, 128% and 141% from the reclaim close.

One more detail I didn’t expect: March 19, 2023, the last reclaim week, was a +32.1% weekly candle. The biggest weekly gain since then? Last week’s +22.8%. The market is rhyming loudly enough that it’s worth saying out loud.

Now the part most analysis skips.

There is exactly one false signal in the whole dataset. April 3, 2022: one weekly close above the 50-week MA in the middle of the bear. It failed the very next week, and the final low came seven months later, 64% lower.

The difference between that fake-out and the three real ones isn’t on the price chart. It’s in the score. The April 2022 close happened with the CSH Score at 65.4, no capitulation behind it, price still expensive against its own cycle. The three real reclaims came off score floors of 22.1, 14.6 and 2.3, with reclaim-week scores of 47.5, 41.9 and 19.5.

Today: score 37.6, coming off a floor of 20.6. That’s the profile of the real ones, not the fake.

So is the low in? Two honest cautions before anyone gets excited, and they’re the same two nagging at me.

First, the boxes this bear hasn’t ticked. It’s the shallowest drawdown in the history, 53% against 75 to 83%, and the CSH Score never went below 20. But the 2018–19 bear bottomed and turned without ever printing sub-20 either. The “final flush” is a pattern, not a law.

Second, timing. The three real reclaims came 284, 141 and 118 days after their bottoms. If July 1 was the low, we’re at day 60. Bitcoin has never gone from a bear-market low to a held weekly close above the 50-week MA that quickly. Quick isn’t impossible. It’s just not what the history looks like.

Where does that leave us? The signal that ended the last three bears has not printed yet: a weekly close above the 50-week MA, held into the weeks that follow. What has printed is the setup: a deep score floor, a violent thrust off the low, and price knocking on the exact level. My own read, and it’s a read, not the data talking: I’m about 50/50, the most bullish I’ve been since the top. And the entire point of running a plan is that being 50/50 doesn’t paralyse me. Both outcomes already have instructions.

Jake’s Workbench

What I actually did this week: nothing. And I mean that as a flex.

The plan bought Bitcoin on a schedule for seven months, every one of those 115 days the CSH Score sat between 20 and 30. When the score crossed 30 on August 22, it stopped. I still hold cash reserved for a score under 20, which may simply never come. If this was the bottom, I bought the whole window on autopilot. If it wasn’t, the rules for the next leg down are already written.

I also ran one number that made the whole approach click. Take the same dollars since the October top, two ways. Buying every single day averaged US$76,551. Buying only on the days the score was 30 or under averaged US$64,759. Same money, 18.2% more Bitcoin, and the only difference is that one buyer had a written definition of cheap before the money moved.

The other thing in the Workbench: CSV import is live in My Plans, and I was the first user. I imported every Bitcoin buy my SMSF has made since August 2024 and looked at my own history against the score. A quarter of my buy dollars went in at a CSH Score above 70. All of it before we built the plan. Wednesday’s article is the full walkthrough, warts and all.

Quick Hits

Jackson Hole turned hawkish. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh used his first keynote on Friday to say inflation is running too hot (PCE 3.7% over the year, 4.1% annualised over six months, his numbers) and to open the door to rate hikes. Futures markets moved a September hike from 35% to roughly 59% overnight, per CME data on August 28. Call it a coin flip.

The dates that matter: August CPI lands September 11, the Fed decides September 16. If they hike, it’s the first tightening crypto has faced since the 2022 bear. Worth respecting.

Elsewhere: gold gave back 3.2% this week, equities flat, VIX asleep at 14.4. Whatever moved Bitcoin last fortnight, it wasn’t a risk-on stampede across every asset.

Week Ahead

The week is one question: does Bitcoin hold near the 50-week MA, or get rejected hard?

Path one: Bitcoin closes a week above the 50-week MA and holds it. That’s the signal that ended the last three bears, and I flip bull.

Path two: a sharp rejection. Every bear since 2013 killed its rallies at this exact level, and I’d expect another trip lower in the range.

Friday night’s US jobs report is the one scheduled event with the weight to decide it.

Both paths already have instructions in my plan. Under a CSH Score of 30, buying restarts. Under 20, the tiers deploy more heavily. A weekly close above the 50-week MA that holds, and I’ll say so plainly and change my positioning language from 50/50 to bull.

The Close

Something different this week. These past few weeks I’ve been feeding every task I hate into Claude and turning the repeatable ones into scheduled automations. Client call logs, receipts, our whole weekly data capture. Hours of my week, gone, permanently.

It’s the same idea CSH is built on. Find the decision you make repeatedly, write down the rule, let a system run it. Whether it’s your admin or your Bitcoin buying, a written rule beats a gut call.

So here’s the challenge: write down the five tasks you hate most, feed the list to an AI, and ask which ones it can automate. Build one this week. The prize isn’t the hours back. It’s freeing your head up for the high-leverage decisions, your plan, your positioning, your next investment, while the systems handle everything else.

More next Sunday.

Jake

Crypto Super Hub is general information and education only. Nothing here is financial advice, and it doesn’t take your objectives, financial situation or needs into account. Crypto is volatile and you can lose money. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. Do your own research and consider speaking with a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions. We hold Bitcoin ourselves, so assume we’re biased.

Bitcoin jumped about 22% this week, its biggest weekly move in years. Roughly US$2.7 billion of short positions were liquidated in a single day on the way up, per Coinglass data, which Bloomberg reported as the largest short wipeout on record. Price touched $79,461 before settling near $76,500 on Sunday evening (Bitstamp).

And my inbox filled with one question, asked a dozen different ways: “Have I missed it?”

Half the internet says yes, the bottom is in, you’re too late. The other half says this is an obvious fake-out and new lows are coming. Both sides sound completely certain.

So this issue does one thing. I went back through 13 years of our data, found every week that looks like this one, and checked what happened next. The answer surprised me, and it isn’t what either camp is telling you.

Small confession before we start: I watched none of this live. I was on a fishing trip with no phone reception, and came back to a repriced market and a phone that wouldn’t stop buzzing. Why that didn’t matter is at the end.

CSH Risk Dashboard

• CSH Score: 31.9, Mid Cycle (a week ago: 24.0, one of the sharpest weekly Score jumps of this bear)

• BTC: about US$76,500 at Sunday evening’s reading, intraweek high $79,461, up roughly 22% on the week (Bitstamp)

• The 79-day run is over. The Score sat at or below 30 from June 4 to August 21, and exited the band on Saturday

• Still bottom 25% of all readings since 2012, about 39% below the October top of $124,774

• Today’s Score band maps to $69,632–$86,377. The top of the 20s band sits at $69,632, roughly 9% below Sunday’s price

The reading changed, and my rules did what they were written to do: above 30, my plan stops buying. The spare cash I keep for a sub-20 reading stays put. You can watch the same number I checked from the boat ramp, free, updated hourly:

Check the live CSH Score

What happened the last 30 times Bitcoin did this

First, the method, in plain words. I took our full daily price and CSH Score history back to 2013 and pulled out every week where Bitcoin rose 18% or more. Big moves come in bursts, so back-to-back qualifying days count as one event.

That gives 46 events in 13 years. Three or four a year, and they almost never happen in the middle of a cycle. They show up at the extremes: near the top of bull markets, or deep in bear markets. That’s not a coincidence. A move this size is rarely new buyers showing up. It’s usually crowded short positions being forced to close all at once, and shorts only get that crowded after months of falling prices. This week fit the pattern exactly.

Thirty of the 46 events happened where we are right now: more than 30% below the all-time high. Here’s what followed, all 30 times, no cherry-picking.

Fifteen of them never let you back in. Price kept going, and the pre-pump lows never traded again.

The other fifteen gave the whole move back within six months. Some went on to make new lows.

Fifteen and fifteen. So when someone tells you this week proves the bottom is in, or proves it’s a trap, here’s the truth: 13 years of data cannot tell those two outcomes apart on the pump alone. Neither can they.

The part that isn’t a coin flip

The pump itself tells you very little. What happens in the weeks after the pump has told you a lot.

I went looking for the events that most resemble right now: a long stretch of low CSH Score readings, then one violent week that pushed the Score up through 30. It has happened four times before.

All four turned out to be the end of that bear market. The worst 30-day stretch after any of them was an 11% dip, and twelve months on they sat between +84% and +737%.

Then there’s the one that looked identical and wasn’t. July 2022: a 21% pump week, 65% below the high, CSH Score in the low 20s. The difference only showed up afterwards. The Score stalled at 28, never crossed 30, and four months later Bitcoin made its real bottom at $15,742. Late 2014 tells the same story twice: two 20%+ pump weeks with the CSH Score in single digits, both fully retraced, and that bear ran another year.

So the useful signal was never the green week. It was whether the CSH Score held above 30 and kept climbing in the weeks after. Today it reads 31.9. That is the number I’m watching for the next month, and you can watch it with me on the app.

One more finding, and it’s the one that should lower your heart rate: even in the four cases where the pump really was the turn, Bitcoin went sideways or down for about a month afterwards before the trend started. If this is the real thing, you have time to act like an adult about it. The feeling that you have to move this week is the squeeze talking, not the data.

So what do you do with a coin flip?

You stop trying to call it.

My own base case for months has been that this bear had further to run. This week moved hard against that view. If Bitcoin keeps closing above its long-term trend levels and the CSH Score holds above 30, I’ll retire that call, in public, in this newsletter.

But here’s the point: my buying never depended on that view. The plan bought every week through the whole stretch of readings in the 20s. At 31.9 it has stopped buying, because that rule was written down too: buy below 30, sit tight above it. If we drop back into the 20s, the buying starts again automatically. If we get under 20, spare cash goes in. And if we never see the 20s again, I’m already positioned. Being wrong about direction was never allowed to become expensive.

That’s what I’d take from this week. Not a prediction. A plan that works on both sides of the coin flip.

Jake’s Workbench

Big product week while I was away:

• The Score to Price Map shipped. The question I get most is “so what price would a CSH Score of 20 be?” The app now shows the live BTC price range for every score band. Today’s answer: the 20s start about 9% below current price.

• CSV trade imports are close. Soon you’ll drop your exchange export on the app and it will match trades to your plan automatically, no hand-logging. Tom’s been testing it on our own accounts.

All on the same free app linked below. Founding access for the first 100 opens later this year.

Create your CSH account today

Quick Hits

• Roughly US$2.7 billion of crypto shorts were liquidated in 24 hours on August 19 per Coinglass data, reported by Bloomberg as the largest short liquidation on record. The squeeze, not fresh buying, did a lot of this week’s lifting.

• The reported spark: the US Treasury said it will at least double its long-end buyback operations from US$2 billion to at least US$4 billion each.

• The squeeze kept running: about another US$1 billion of shorts were wiped on August 21 as Bitcoin cleared $75,000 (CoinDesk).

The Week Ahead

• The follow-through is the story now. In every past case, you couldn’t tell a real bottom from a fake-out on the pump week itself. The difference showed up over the following weeks, in whether the CSH Score held above 30 and kept climbing. 31.9 is the number to watch.

• Weekly closes against the bull market resistance band, the 20-week and 21-week moving averages, currently sitting around $69,400 to $69,600 (Bitstamp weekly data). This week closed about $7K above it. The catch: April and May closed above the same band too, then rolled over, which is why my rule asks for consecutive closes, not one. Worth noticing: the band sits almost exactly where the CSH Score’s 20s band tops out.

• September is historically a weak month for Bitcoin. If it lives up to that this year, the CSH Score’s 20s band starts at $69,632, about 9% below Sunday’s price. That’s where historically cheap begins again.

The Close

Back to the fishing trip, because it’s the whole argument in one story.

I had no reception for the biggest week of the year, and it cost me nothing. My plan has been buying since February, through 79 straight days of CSH Score readings in the 20s, when it was boring and nobody wanted to talk about Bitcoin. The position was already built. This week just changed the number next to it.

I didn’t earn that by watching charts. I earned it months ago, when I wrote the plan and let it run.

The market will serve up more weeks like this one. The best time to decide what you’ll do in them is now, while it’s calm.

— Jake

Crypto Super Hub is general information and education only. Nothing here is financial advice, and it doesn’t take your objectives, financial situation or needs into account. Crypto is volatile and you can lose money. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. Do your own research and consider speaking with a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions. We hold Bitcoin ourselves, so assume we’re biased.

Tomorrow, Bitcoin ties a record almost nobody is watching.

The CSH Score has now spent 74 straight days in the 20 to 30 band, the zone we call accumulation territory. One more day ties the longest run in the score’s 14-year history. Two more breaks it. No crash, no breakout, no headlines. Price has been stuck between roughly $59,000 and $66,500 for two and a half months, the longest stretch of nothing this market has ever produced.

Most people treat a market like this as a reason to switch off. I did the opposite. I spent the week with a trading book written in 1923, about a trader born in 1877, and it turns out to explain this exact stretch, and about half the people in your feed, better than anything published this year.

It also handed me the only sentence you need for the next few months. More below.

Everything in this issue runs on the free version of the app:

Create your free CSH account

The CSH Risk Dashboard

CSH Score: 24.7/100 — Early Cycle (−0.7 on the week). Bottom 21% of every reading since 2011, and day 74 of the unbroken run between 20 and 30.

Key indicators:

• BTC: US$63,066 / A$89,098 (7d: −2.76%)

• BTC Dominance: 58.91%

• ETH/BTC: 0.0298

• TOTAL3/BTC (alts priced in Bitcoin): 0.37, flat on the week

• 200-week moving average: ~US$63,900. Price is now about 1.4% below it

• Bull market support band: ~US$68,800 to US$69,100 overhead

Callback: Last issue I showed you what a perfect bottom call was worth: 24% over a plain banded plan, and every realistic alternative 49 to 71 per cent behind it. This week the market tested the other half of that argument. Nothing happened. For 74 days, mostly nothing has happened. That’s the part no backtest can teach you, because the hard bit of a plan isn’t the maths. It’s the sitting.

Jake’s read: the squeeze I described last week is resolving, and not upward. Price is sitting about 1.4% under the 200-week moving average, and if it stays here we get a weekly close below it right as we enter August and September, historically Bitcoin’s two weakest months. Meanwhile the S&P 500 closed at another record this week and gold is near all-time highs. Stocks at records with Bitcoin 49.5% off its high is not a combination I’d lean bullish into. Our base case is unchanged: weakness into September or October, roughly 80% of the way through this bear on time, and watching for the first CSH Score reading under 20, which still hasn’t printed. My scheduled buys keep running either way. Not advice, just what my plan is doing.

Be right, sit tight

The best thing I read this year was written 103 years ago.

Reminiscences of a Stock Operator is a lightly fictionalised account of Jesse Livermore, who started trading in Boston bucket shops at fifteen and made his first million shorting the panic of 1907, a million of it in a single day. He also went broke more than once getting there. The man failed more times than most people ever try.

One passage has stuck with me all week. An old trader the customers called Old Turkey gets pestered for tips, and every time someone tells him to take profits before a dip, he gives the same answer: he can’t, because he’d lose his position, and the big money was never in the wiggles. It was in the main move. Sizing up the whole market and its trend, then not letting go.

Livermore’s own words on it:

“It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! ... Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon.”

And the line I’d frame on the wall of every crypto account on X:

“The market does not beat them. They beat themselves, because though they have brains they cannot sit tight.”

Be right, sit tight. Two separate jobs.

Being right is the work you do on a calm day. Read the conditions, form a view only you can own, write the plan down. That’s what the CSH Score and the Plan Builder are for: the score tells you where Bitcoin sits in its cycle, the plan decides in advance what you’ll do about it. Right now the score reads 24.7, the bottom 21% of every reading since 2011. My view, which I’ve held for months: cheap, probably not the low, accumulation territory on a plan.

Sitting tight is the harder job, and it points in different directions depending on the market. In a bull market it means letting the position run past every urge to take a tidy profit. Livermore again: “you never grow poor taking profits. No, you don’t. But neither do you grow rich taking a four-point profit in a bull market.” In a bear it means the opposite: patience while the conditions grind through the boring part. This bear has been the boring part for 74 straight days.

Here’s what the score’s own history says about runs like this one. The four longest stretches in the 20 to 30 band before now: 75 days ending December 2016, 66 ending October 2023, 62 ending January 2016, 57 ending August 2022. Three of those four resolved upward into accumulation that paid. The 2022 one broke down into the November low.

But the detail that matters is one layer deeper. Of those four, only the 2022 run happened in the middle of a bear market, before the low was in. The 2016 and 2023 runs all came after their bears had already bottomed, when quiet really was accumulation. The one streak that looked most like today’s, mid-bear with hope still in the market, is the one that broke down.

That’s not a prediction. It’s a reason to respect both outcomes, and it’s why the plan covers both: scheduled buys the whole way through, bigger tiers locked and waiting for a sub-20 reading that might never come, and exactly what they’re there for if the record streak resolves the 2022 way.

One more thing from the book that made me laugh out loud. Livermore describes the “semisucker” as the bloke who “knows all the don’ts that ever fell from the oracular lips of the old stagers, excepting the principal one, which is: Don’t be a sucker!” He’s also the type who “thinks he has cut his wisdom teeth because he loves to buy on declines.” Written in 1923. He’d have a field day with crypto Twitter.

There is nothing new in markets. There can’t be, because speculation is as old as the hills, and human nature hasn’t changed since.

Jake’s Workbench

I automated myself out of a job this month. The boring half of it, anyway.

Every Sunday for the past year I’ve sat down and manually pulled the week’s numbers: X analytics, LinkedIn, the newsletter stats, all of it into one review. Thirty-plus minutes, every week, and me doing it added exactly nothing. So I set up Claude to do the whole pull automatically on Sunday mornings and log the report before I’m out of bed. It even drives the browser itself for the parts that don’t have an export. Slowly, mind you. But it doesn’t make mistakes, and it doesn’t need me watching.

The reason I’m telling you this isn’t the tool. It’s the principle, and it’s the same principle as the score. Automate the repeatable decisions so your energy goes to the ones that actually need you. That’s all the CSH system is: the data pull is automated, the plan executes by rules you set in advance, and the only job left for you is the one that matters, deciding what kind of investor you want to be on a calm day.

Tom’s SMSF plan goes public on X this week too. Short version: he’s set it deliberately aggressive, deploying only between a CSH Score of 10 and 20, scaling up as it falls. That zone hasn’t printed once this bear, so his plan has sat in cash all year, exactly as written. Sitting tight isn’t only a holding skill. The Plan Builder he used is free.

Create your free CSH account

Quick Hits

• The scams are getting worse, not better, and they’re coming for super. Two weeks after I wrote about SMSF savings lost to a fake yield platform, I watched more of it cross the desk this week, including six-figure USDT purchases headed for external wallets with all the classic red flags attached. We caught one before the money left. The industry only ever sees the ones that get caught. So what: the number one rule in crypto hasn’t changed and never will. Never send funds to a wallet you don’t control, and treat every promised return as the opening line of a theft. For scale: boring spot Bitcoin, bought on any of the 325 cheap days in 2022 and 2023 and just held, returned between 4.2x and 7.9x at the 2025 top. Nobody offering you “guaranteed 20%” can compete with that, and they were never planning to pay you anyway.

• The S&P 500 set another record while Bitcoin sat 49.5% below its own. US stocks made fresh all-time highs this week on cooling inflation data, gold is near records at about US$4,376, and Bitcoin went sideways again. So what: that divergence won’t hold forever, and I don’t know which side closes the gap. My plan doesn’t need to know. It’s also worth saying plainly: risk assets at records while rate expectations wobble is late-innings behaviour, which is one more reason we’re not in a hurry.

• Watch tomorrow morning’s weekly close. Price is sitting about 1.4% below the 200-week moving average, roughly US$63,900. Bitcoin has closed a week below that line exactly once this cycle, at the end of June, and it snapped straight back. A second close below it, heading into the historically weak August-September window, would confirm the market is still working through the down leg. So what: no action from me either way. The levels are context. The score is the input, and it reads 24.7.

The Week Ahead

• Tuesday: the record. If the CSH Score holds between 20 and 30 through Tuesday, this becomes the longest stretch in that band in the score’s history, past the 75-day run from late 2016. I’ll post what that has meant historically, both the times it resolved up and the time it didn’t.

• Monday 10am AEST: the weekly candle closes. Above or below US$63,900. See Quick Hits.

• Thursday: this week’s article. Be Right, Sit Tight: the full Livermore piece, what a 1923 book gets right about 2026, and how we’ve built the sitting into a system so you don’t have to be a once-a-century freak to manage it.

• Quiet macro week. The next big scheduled prints are US CPI September 11 and the Fed decision September 16. Three Fed officials voted for a hike in July. September is where that argument gets settled.

The Close

Livermore made and lost four fortunes, and the thing he said mattered most wasn’t a trade. It was sitting still when he was right.

This market is a 74-day test of exactly that. Most people fail it quietly: they don’t sell the bottom, they just stop buying, stop looking, drift off to whatever’s moving. The plan is what sits tight for you.

Be right on a calm day. Then let the system do the sitting.

— Jake

Nothing in this email is financial advice. The CSH Score is a measurement, not a signal, and past cycles don’t guarantee anything about this one.

One word back: are you still buying this bear, yes or no?

Everyone is waiting for the window to open.

It opened in February.

Bitcoin has been cheap for 129 days now and almost nobody noticed, because cheap didn’t arrive the way people expect. No crash. No capitulation candle. No moment where it was obvious. The CSH Score just dropped under 30, which is our line for cheap by cycle standards, one Monday in February. It’s mostly stayed there since.

That’s the problem with waiting for a signal you’ll recognise. It might not arrive.

Everything below runs on the free version of the app:

Create your free CSH account

The CSH Risk Dashboard

CSH Score: 25.4/100 — Early Cycle (+0.6 on the week). Bottom 22% of every reading since 2011, and the 67th day in a row with the score between 20 and 30.

Key indicators:

• BTC: US$64,753 / A$92,760 (7d: +2.00%)

• BTC Dominance: 59.35%

• ETH/BTC: 0.0295

• TOTAL3/BTC (alts priced in Bitcoin): 0.37, flat on the week

• 200-week moving average: ~US$63,780

• Bull market support band: ~US$69,200 to US$69,330

Callback: Last issue I asked how you hold most of your stack. Self-custody won easily, and after the month we’ve just had that answer needs more detail, because self-custody on its own isn’t a plan.

Four things I’d take out of the last fortnight:

• Spread it. Don’t hold everything on one device. This month proved the device can be the weak point.

• Use multisig for anything you’d be sick about losing. Two or three keys held in different places means one compromised seed isn’t the end of it.

• A licensed exchange account is a legitimate part of the mix, not a compromise, if it has two-factor authentication, a dedicated email address you don’t use anywhere else, and audited proof of reserves you can go and check yourself.

• Write down what happens if you get hit by a bus. Nobody does this, and it’s the part that actually loses coins.

Jake’s read: July closed positive. Our base case from here is a weak August and September. Price is squeezing between two lines, the 200-week average underneath at about US$63,780 and the bull market support band above at roughly US$69,200, and they’re converging. That squeeze resolves one way or the other before long, and we’re leaning down. On timing, we think we’re around 80% of the way through this bear.

What the bottom is actually worth

Every bear before this one made you wait most of a year to get cheap. Counting from the top to the first day the CSH Score dropped under 30: 258 days after the 2013 top, 339 after 2017, 218 after 2021.

This one took 125 days.

Cheap turned up in February around US$70,500 and never left. We’re now 129 days with a CSH Score under 30, 44 of those under 25, and not one reading under 20.

Which brings me to the question I get asked more than any other. When’s the bottom, and how do I know when to buy?

I can’t answer that. Nobody can. So I backtested it instead.

Five execution models, $100,000 each, run against our score history through the last complete bear and measured at the October 2025 top. I used $100,000 because it’s roughly the rollover size I keep hearing about, not because it’s a number I’m recommending.

• Bought the exact bottom, 10 November 2022: 6.35 BTC

• Followed the CSH Score, buying bigger as it fell: 5.12 BTC

• Same amount every week, the whole way through: 2.62 BTC

• Waited until it felt safe, February 2024: 1.92 BTC

• Waited for a new all-time high to confirm it, March 2024: 1.47 BTC

Two things stand out.

The first: buying the exact bottom, which needs a crystal ball, got you 24% more Bitcoin than just following the score. So a perfect call was worth 24%. That’s it.

The second is the gap underneath. Every other model finished 49% to 71% behind the plan. And none of those are stupid decisions. They’re what careful people actually do.

Waiting until it felt safe finished with 63% less Bitcoin. February 2024 genuinely did feel safe. The ETFs had launched, price was climbing, the news had turned. That’s the problem. It felt safe because it had already got expensive.

Everyone worries about buying too early. Waiting is what actually costs you.

The CSH Score doesn’t fix that by being clever about the bottom. It fixes it by making the decision on the days you’d talk yourself out of one, and by sizing each buy to the score instead of betting it all on a single day. Small when it’s only mildly cheap, bigger as it gets cheaper, biggest at levels that barely ever print. So if the bottom does turn up, you’re buying into it instead of watching it.

That’s not perfect and I won’t pretend it is. Nobody gets 6.35 BTC without a crystal ball. It’s just a long way better than what people actually do.

Now the part that cuts against me. Holding out for a very low score did work. In that bear, buying only the days with a CSH Score under 20 got an average entry 18.7% cheaper than buying every day under 30. In the 2018 bear it was 29.8% cheaper. Patience paid.

The catch is how short that window was. In 2018 the score spent 60 days under 20, total. Miss it and you deployed nothing, which is how you end up in the 1.47 BTC row.

So my plan does both. Scheduled buys run the whole time the CSH Score is under 30, so I’m always accumulating. The bigger tiers stay locked until a reading under 20 that might never come. If it never comes, I’ve still spent 129 days buying under 30.

For what it’s worth, today’s US$64,753 is 1.9% below the average price of all 129 of those days.

Jake’s Workbench

Tom has set up his SMSF, and he’s going to deploy six figures of his own money into Bitcoin through it, in public.

We’ll show all of it. How the plan was built, which score bands he’s targeting, what each tier is sized at, and what actually fires. Not a backtest this time, and not a case study written up once we already know how it went. His real fund, his real money, posted as it happens.

Plenty of people will tell you what to buy. Very few show you their own execution while the outcome is still unknown, because that’s the part where you can be wrong in front of everyone.

More on Tom’s plan over the coming weeks. The Plan Builder he used is free.

Quick Hits

• The Coldcard theft is bigger than the early numbers, and the scammers have followed the fear. Analysts now put the total near 1,816 BTC, roughly US$116 million, from more than 5,200 addresses across four waves. A week ago the tally was 1,367. And a second wave has started with nothing to do with the original flaw: on August 6 a Trezor user reported losing their life savings after clicking a sponsored Google result that led to a fake Trezor page hosted on Google Sites. Trezor confirmed the page and said it was escalating internally. Their hardware was never compromised. So what: the attack moved from the device to the search bar. Bookmark your wallet site or type the address in yourself. A paid ad slot is not a trust signal.

• The market is climbing a wall of worry. The S&P closed at a record on Friday, up 3.58% on the week, while three Fed officials voted to raise rates in July, the most hawkish split on that committee in nearly a decade, and US government debt keeps making highs. Gold is up 2.39% and near records too, which isn’t a combination you see in a calm market. So what: stocks at records with Bitcoin still 48% off its high won’t stay unusual forever. I don’t know which moves toward the other. My plan doesn’t need to know.

• Bitcoin ETF flows turned back on, for now. Spot Bitcoin ETFs took inflows on five straight days from August 3 to 7, more than US$750 million for the week, with BlackRock’s fund taking US$479 million of the first US$626 million. Against the backdrop: those same funds ran US$5.4 billion of net outflows across the first half of 2026, their first negative half-year since launch. So what: ETF flows are the one demand signal that isn’t sentiment. One good week doesn’t reverse a bad half, but it’s the first thing in months that looks like buyers rather than sellers.

The Week Ahead

• US CPI on Wednesday August 12, PPI on Thursday. July inflation, 8:30am New York time, which is Thursday morning here. These two set the tone into the September 16 Fed meeting. A hot number is the more likely source of trouble.

• The squeeze. The 200-week average at about US$63,780 and the bull market support band around US$69,200 are converging, with price caught between them. Weekly closes either side of that range are the only levels I’m watching.

• A CSH Score under 20. It hasn’t happened once this bear: 129 days under 30, zero under 20. My biggest tiers stay locked until that changes, and if it lands it’ll be in this dashboard before it’s anywhere else.

• Getting ready is the actual work. If a low score lands while your money is still in a super fund, your SMSF isn’t registered, or your bank hasn’t been tested with a small transfer, the window closes while you’re doing paperwork. Cash where you can spend it, structure done, rails tested, plan written. Ready before cheap.

The people who did well out of the last bear weren’t the ones who guessed right. Most of them never guessed at all. They’d already decided what they’d do, then did it on the days it felt worst.

It isn’t clever and it doesn’t make for good content. It just works more often than the alternative.

The score and Plan Builder are free:

Create your free CSH account

One number this week, and it’s the only thing I want to know: on a scale of 1 to 4, how ready are you right now? 1 is nothing done, 4 is cash in the account and a plan written. Reply with the digit.

See you next Sunday.

Jake

Not financial advice. This is a record of what I do with my own money and why. History doesn’t guarantee a repeat. Talk to someone licensed who knows your situation before moving real dollars.

This week we noticed several SMSFs, unconnected to each other on paper, all withdrawing stablecoins to the same wallet address.

Different funds. Different trustees. One address. In super, that’s not just strange, it’s against the rules. Your fund’s crypto has to be held in the fund’s own name. It can never be pooled with another fund, another person, another platform.

So we pulled the thread. Behind that address: an offshore platform promising 20% annual returns, guaranteed. Reviews that all sound like the same person wrote them. No SMSF accounts. No names, no license, no way to find out who’s actually holding the money.

I’ve taken enough of these calls to know how this ends, and it makes me angrier every time, because it’s always someone’s retirement. This issue is the one I hope you forward to the person who needs it.

Everything I use to stay on the boring path runs on the free version of the app.

Create your free CSH account

The CSH Risk Dashboard

CSH Score: 24.8/100 — Early Cycle (−0.8 on the week). Bottom 21% of every reading since 2011, and roughly the 60th straight day inside the 20–30 band.

Key indicators:

• BTC: US$62,948 / A$89,745 (7d: −3.6%)

• BTC Dominance: 59.0%

• ETH/BTC: 0.0295

• TOTAL3/BTC (alts priced in Bitcoin): 0.37 — prior cycle bottoms washed out near 0.25

• Fear & Greed: 27 — Fear

• Total market cap: ~US$2.14T

Callback: Last issue I asked for one number: the percentage of your stack that’s Bitcoin. Only a handful of you replied, but the answers were telling. Most of you are 100% Bitcoin. A couple are holding ETH and waiting for its turn. One of you is running a full altcoin playbook. That last group is why I don’t think this reset is finished: there’s still hope in the market, and bears usually grind that out before they end. And the three things I said needed to happen before this bear could finish (issue #24)? Still zero of three.

Jake’s read: July closed positive, then the tape slipped back under the 200-week average (~US$63.5K). Reclaiming that line is the whole fight right now, and fear is picking up outside crypto too. My plan did nothing this week, on schedule.

What the scam looked like from my side of the desk

It starts innocently. Someone sets up an SMSF, opens the account, transfers super, buys crypto. Sensible questions, careful people. Sometimes the pitch comes later, once there’s a balance worth stealing, from a “platform” a friend or a Facebook group swears by. And sometimes it’s worse: the scammer is there from day one, coaching the whole setup, the fund, the bank account, the exchange account, playing the part of the helpful expert while steering every dollar toward a wallet they control. I’ve taken calls where you can tell the person is being fed their next question over WhatsApp in real time.

The pattern is close to identical every time. Guaranteed returns, this one was 20% a year. Offshore, so no Australian license and no regulator to complain to. Glowing reviews that read like they came off a production line. And at some point, an instruction to send funds to a wallet address that isn’t yours.

That last one is the deal-breaker, and the rule could not be simpler: your fund’s crypto is held in the fund’s name, always. A wallet the fund controls is fine. The fund’s account at a licensed Australian exchange is fine. A stranger’s “platform wallet”, pooled with other people’s money, is neither, and no legitimate operator will ever ask you to send coins to one. The moment your coins land in an address like that, they aren’t yours anymore, and usually that’s the last you see of them.

Here’s the five-minute check I’d run on any platform before a dollar moves. Is the return guaranteed? Real crypto yield is variable and mostly boring; guaranteed means the return is being paid out of the next person’s deposit. Can you find the humans? A registered Australian entity, named directors, an AUSTRAC registration you can look up. Do the reviews survive a sniff test? And does your money ever leave custody in your fund's name? Any single miss and I walk. Two misses and it’s a scam, ten times out of ten.

And before anyone feels stupid for being tempted, I’ll put my own hand up. In 2022 I had money earning a “guaranteed” 19.5% in Anchor, the savings product built on Luna. It had slick dashboards, institutional backers and millions of true believers, and in May it went to zero in about a week, along with roughly $40 billion of other people’s money. So I’m not writing this from a high horse. I’m writing it as someone who knows exactly how reasonable that pitch sounds, and exactly how it ends.

When it goes wrong, there’s no fixing it. Prosecution of these platforms is close to zero. Tracing is hard and recovery almost never happens. I’ve watched people lose six figures of super this way, and those funds do not come back. Ever.

And the part that makes me angriest: nobody needed the 20%.

I went through our score history this week to put a number on it. Bitcoin from the November 2022 low to the October 2025 top did 7.9x. But forget catching the low. Across 2022 and 2023 there were 325 days where the score sat under 30, meaning Bitcoin was cheap by cycle standards. Buy on the single worst of those days, $30,019, and you were still up 4.2x at the top. The median of all 325 did 6x.

Read that again next time someone pitches you a guaranteed 20%. The most boring possible entry into Bitcoin, the bluechip of this entire asset class, quadrupled, with no counterparty who can disappear, no lock-up, no bloke on WhatsApp. History doesn’t guarantee a repeat. But if it sounds too good to be true, it is. Every single time.

Jake’s Workbench

Quiet week on the surface. Underneath, it’s all launch prep: the paid version opens to a founding 100, and that cap is a real number, not a marketing device. Those spots go to people already using the free version.

The plan itself did what plans do. Scheduled buys running inside my range, bigger tiers still waiting on a sub-20 print that hasn’t come, no decisions made by me in real time.

Everything above is free to try right now, including the score and Plan Builder.

Quick Hits

• The Coldcard exploit keeps growing. A flaw in how Coldcard wallets generated seed phrases let attackers recreate seeds offline and sweep wallets without ever touching a device. Since July 30, close to US$89 million in Bitcoin has been drained from more than 4,500 addresses across three separate waves, and the latest wave went after small wallets, around 0.1 BTC per victim, so being small is no protection. Who’s affected, per CoinKite’s official advisory: Mk2 and Mk3 devices on firmware 4.0.1 to 4.1.9 are the severe cases, and seeds generated on Mk4, Mk5 or Q before the fixed firmware releases are affected too, less severely but seriously enough that CoinKite recommends migrating. Ledger, Trezor, Bitkey and Jade are unaffected. Seeds created with 50 or more dice rolls aren’t at risk from this bug, and a passphrase buys time but doesn’t repair the seed. The guidance is blunt: update the firmware, generate a fresh seed, and move your funds. CoinKite’s advisory is here, and Checkonchain’s write-up is the best plain-English breakdown. So what: “just self-custody it” has been the industry’s default advice for years, and this week it was proven incomplete. The real rule for SMSFs is that the fund’s crypto is held in the fund’s name, whether that’s the fund’s own wallet or a licensed Australian exchange, and whichever model you run, custody is part of running the fund, same as the audit. As an industry we owe people better answers than a slogan.

• Risk-off is spreading. SpaceX has fallen below its IPO price and sits roughly half off its post-IPO high. The 2-year Treasury yield has pushed to 2026 highs as bond markets start pricing the chance of rate rises. And while the Fed held rates in July, three of its own members voted to raise them instead, the most hawkish split on the committee in nearly a decade. So what: fear outside crypto tends to leak in. My plan doesn’t trade headlines, but it does expect them.

• August and September are historically Bitcoin’s two worst months, the only two with negative average returns, and in all three prior midterm years (2014, 2018, 2022) both months closed red. So what: if red months come, the calendar doesn’t size my buys. The score does.

The Week Ahead

• The clock. The last three bears ran 410, 363 and 365 days from top to bottom, and two of the three bottomed almost exactly one year after the top. This one is on day 299, and day 365 lands on October 7. A clock, not a prediction.

• The sub-20 window. In every prior bear, the first sub-20 score printed 236 to 352 days after the top. We’re inside that window right now with zero prints, and September, October and December hold the most sub-20 days in 14.5 years of history. That print is the trigger my bigger tiers are waiting on. If it lands, you’ll hear it here first.

• The 200-week line, ~US$63.5K. Price is sitting just beneath it. Weekly closes either side are the tape’s whole story.

The people who get caught by these platforms aren’t stupid or greedy. They’re mostly careful people who were sold certainty in an asset class that doesn’t have any. The honest version is slower: a system, a score, buys sized on a calm day, custody in your fund’s name.

That’s what we build. The score and Plan Builder are free:

Create your free CSH account

One-word reply this week, and after the week I’ve had I’m genuinely asking: how do you hold most of your stack? Self-custody, exchange, or ETF.

See you next Sunday.

Jake

Not financial advice. This is a record of what I do with my own money and why. Past cycles don’t promise anything about this one. Scam warnings here are general in nature. Talk to someone licensed who knows your situation before moving real dollars.

Every SMSF call I take ends the same way.

We get through the paperwork. Trust deed, bank account, custody, audit trail. All the stuff that keeps people out of trouble. Then there’s a pause, and I know exactly what’s coming.

“So. Should I buy now? Should I wait? What do I actually buy?”

I can’t answer that. Not won’t. Can’t. The person asking might be 42 with twenty years of runway, or 68 with three. They might sleep fine through a 30% drawdown or lose their mind at 10%. Nobody can answer that question for someone else, and anyone who does is guessing.

But hundreds of people have asked me it now, and it’s the reason Tom and I built CSH. So this week I’m giving the only honest answer I’ve got: exactly what I do with my own money, and the system that runs it. Not so you copy it. So you can see what a system looks like, and build your own.

Everything below runs on the free version of the app.

Create your free CSH account

The CSH Risk Dashboard

CSH Score: 25.6/100 — Early Cycle (steady, +0.7 on the week). Bottom 22% of every reading since 2011, and the 52nd straight day inside the 20–30 band.

Key indicators:

• BTC: US$64,492 / A$91,717 (7d: roughly flat)

• BTC Dominance: 59.2%

• ETH/BTC: 0.029

• TOTAL3/BTC (alts priced in Bitcoin): 0.37 — prior cycle bottoms washed out near 0.25

• Fear & Greed: 26 - Fear

• Total market cap: $2.27T

Callback: Last issue I said three things had to happen before this bear could end, and that none had. A week on, the count is still zero for three. The only change worth noting: BTC clawed back above its 200-week average (~US$63.3K). Necessary, nowhere near sufficient.

Jake’s read: A fortnight of sideways chop between roughly US$62K and $66K, with the score parked in the mid-20s the whole time. Boring tape, loud macro. My plan changed nothing this week, and that was the plan.

How I invest my own money

No headline this week. The question above matters more than anything in the news cycle, so here’s my answer, in three rules.

Rule one: measure against two benchmarks. I track my portfolio in dollars and in Bitcoin. The second number keeps me honest. If your alts doubled while Bitcoin tripled, you went backwards. You just didn’t notice, because you were only watching the dollar number. Fifteen years in, BTC is still the benchmark of this whole asset class. If I’m going to hold anything else, it’s because I genuinely think it’ll beat Bitcoin. Otherwise, why hold it?

Rule two: core first, and know your limits. Right now I’m 100% Bitcoin. Zero altcoins. That’s not forever, it’s just what fits my life. I’ve got a family, a full-time job at an exchange, and I’m building CSH on the side. Altcoin rotation is a job for someone with hours I don’t have. I know because I tried it last cycle, with a bag of alts and no plan, and got rekt while Bitcoin quietly beat almost everything I was holding. The lesson wasn’t that altcoins are bad. It was that my portfolio has to fit my actual life. Start with BTC as the core. Add complexity only if you’ve got the time and skill to carry it.

Rule three: let the system do the buying. My money runs on a dynamic DCA through the CSH score. Buys on a schedule, but only while the score sits inside my range of 10 to 30. The sizing is the dynamic part: the lower the score, the bigger the buy. A parcel at 30 is modest. A parcel at 15 is several times larger. Every one of those decisions was made months ago, on a calm day. The market can’t renegotiate with me at 11pm.

And the same machinery runs in reverse. My plan DCAs out above my exit band. Last cycle, having exits written down was the difference between banking the cycle and round-tripping it. Bitcoin has kept to something very close to a four-year rhythm its whole life. I’m not fading that with vibes.

Where does that leave me this week? Score at 25.6, scheduled buys running inside the band, bigger tiers still waiting for a sub-20 print that hasn’t come. Two weeks of doing nothing new on purpose. Inaction is also a position, and right now it’s mine.

Jake’s Workbench

Big ship this week: My Plans got a full overhaul. Email alerts are live. You can set a portfolio goal and watch it fill. Order logging is two taps, and the portfolio view now shows your average buy price next to the live score. It’s turning into the screen I check instead of the price.

Here’s my own plan, straight from the app:

Three orders logged since late June, 0.2279 BTC toward a 2 BTC goal, average buy A$87,755. Quick caveat so nobody misreads that screen: this plan only tracks what I’ve bought since it went live a few weeks ago. It’s a slice of my stack, not the whole thing. But that’s the system from the section above, running in public, and the record builds from here.

Next on the bench: CSV upload and exchange sync, so order logging gets even easier.

Quick Hits

• Altseason chatter is back. My feed’s full of rotation calls. The dial I watch says not yet: alt market cap priced in BTC sits at 0.37, and every prior cycle bottom washed down near 0.25 before alts had their run. Dominance still rising, ETH/BTC still flat. So what: if you’re being pitched an alt rotation this week, ask what benchmark the pitch is measured in.

(TOTAL3 - USDT)/ BTC - Trading View

• The Fed meets Wednesday (US time). A hold is priced at roughly 85%, but hike whispers are getting louder. So what: unless your plan depends on next month’s rates, this is noise. Mine doesn’t.

• Visa launched a stablecoin platform so banks can issue their own coins without building the plumbing. So what: this is what bear markets are for. The rails get built while nobody’s watching the price.

• Morgan Stanley switched on spot BTC, ETH and SOL trading for E*TRADE customers. So what: millions of ordinary brokerage accounts are now one tap from Bitcoin. The next wave of buyers won’t come through crypto Twitter. They’ll come through screens they already use.

The Week Ahead

• FOMC decision, Thursday 4am AEST. A hold is mostly priced, so the reaction will be about the language. Expect chop either direction. Chop is not a signal.

• The 200-week average, ~US$63.3K. BTC is sitting almost exactly on it. Weekly closes above or below this line are what the whole market is watching.

• The sub-20 print. Still zero days below 20 this cycle. That’s the trigger my bigger buy tiers are waiting on. If it arrives, you’ll hear about it here first.

One question built this whole company: “should I buy now?” The honest answer was never a date or a coin. It’s a system that fits your life, sized to your nerves, written down before the market gets loud.

Mine’s above. If you want to build yours, the score and Plan Builder are free:

Create your free CSH account

And I’m curious about the room: hit reply with one number, the percentage of your stack that’s Bitcoin right now. I’ll share the spread next week.

See you then.

Jake

The loudest week of doing nothing

My feed spent the whole week calling the bottom. Confident threads, victory laps, “you had your chance” posts.

Meanwhile I did nothing. Not a single discretionary move. My weekly buy fired on schedule, the way it has every week this year, and the bigger orders in my plan stayed exactly where they’ve been for months: loaded, waiting, untriggered.

Two weeks of Bitcoin grinding sideways in the low $60Ks will do strange things to people. Some snap and sell. Some declare the bottom, because being early feels like being smart. In 2021 I was the second kind. The grind cost me more than any crash did, because boredom is when you start improvising.

So this week I went looking for an actual answer. Not vibes, not someone else’s chart. I pulled our full score history, every day since February 2012, and asked one question: what did every previous bear market do before it ended, and has this one done it?

The answer is the cleanest thing I’ve seen all year.

The CSH Risk Dashboard

CSH Score: 24.9 / 100, up 0.8 on the week (+3.3%), sitting in the 20 to 30 band. Bitcoin has only spent 15.1% of its history down here. Today’s reading is in the bottom 21% of every score we’ve ever printed.

The numbers that matter this week:

• BTC price: $64,739 (7d: +1.55%)

• Cycle low so far: score 21.5 on July 1, at $58,551

• The 200-week moving average sits near $63K. Price is trading right on top of it.

• Days this year with the score under 30: 107 of the first 199

• Days this cycle with the score under 20: zero

Jake’s read: the score says accumulation territory, but price is stuck in a shrinking wedge. Long-term support underneath, the old bull market support band pressing down from above. Squeezes like this end with a break, one way or the other. My plan doesn’t need to guess which way. Standard buys keep running at these levels, and the aggressive tiers stay parked until the score does something it hasn’t done all cycle. More on that in a second.

See the live score

The checklist this bear hasn’t run

Since 2014, every Bitcoin bear market has done three specific things before it ended. Not sometimes. Every time.

1. It took its time. The modern bears all ran roughly twelve months from top to bottom. This one topped in October 2025. Twelve months puts the window in the fourth quarter of this year. We’re in month nine.

2. It pushed the score under 20. This is the one that stopped me. The 2014-15 bear spent 275 days with the score under 20. The 2018 bear spent 52 days there. The 2022 bear, 123 days. This cycle so far: not a single day. The closest we’ve come is 21.5, on July 1.

3. It got cheaper than the average buyer’s cost. There’s an on-chain number called the realised price: the average price at which every Bitcoin last changed hands. Think of it as the market’s collective break-even, currently around $53K. In every previous bear, price fell through that level before the bottom was in. June’s low of $57K got close. It never touched it.

Three checkpoints. Zero completed. That’s why I’m not in the bottom-is-in camp, however much I’d like to be.

Now the honest other side, because there is one. This drawdown has been shallower than past bears at the same stage. The ETFs are a class of buyer that simply didn’t exist in 2018 or 2022, and they may put a higher floor under this cycle than history suggests. And at the June low, more Bitcoin was underwater than in profit for the first time this cycle, a condition that has historically shown up in the same neighbourhood as bottoms. A reasonable person could weigh all that and conclude the low is closer than my checklist implies.

Here’s the part that actually matters for your money: I don’t need to win that argument, and neither do you. If the bottom is in, my weekly buys at scores in the low 20s will look very good. If it isn’t, my bigger orders are waiting below 20 with cash ready. The plan covers both branches. A prediction only covers one.

Jake’s Workbench

I put Claude to work on our score history this week. 5,279 days of data, one question: if you’d bought Bitcoin on any given day, what was that purchase worth 12 months later, grouped by what the score read on the day you bought?

The results, in plain English. Bought anywhere in the 20 to 30 band, where we are today, the median outcome a year later was +132%, and only 6% of those days ended the year negative. Bought above a score of 60, the median outcome was a loss.

Read that again slowly, because it’s the whole philosophy in one chart. The edge doesn’t come from catching the exact low. Buyers in the “pretty cheap” band did about as well as buyers in the “screaming cheap” band. The edge comes from refusing to buy euphoria and being systematically present near the floor. Fifteen years of data, one sentence.

Past readings, not a promise. But it’s exactly why the plan exists.

Also on the bench this week: we’re tuning the score engine for ETH, SOL and XRP (close, but numbers don’t ship until the forward-sims stop surprising us), and we’re debating exchange API sync versus CSV upload for portfolio tracking. If you have a view on that one, reply to this email. I read everything.

And if you haven’t built your plan yet, this stretch of the cycle is exactly what the Plan Builder is for. Build it while the market is boring. Execute it when it isn’t.

Create your free plan

Quick hits

• One Bitcoin now buys about 16 ounces of gold. At the October top it bought roughly double that, and the June dip touched 14. Gold is only ~19% off its January record while BTC ground lower, which makes this Bitcoin’s cheapest stretch against gold since 2023. Two “fear assets,” two very different years.

• The Fed held at 3.50 to 3.75% and dropped its easing bias. June inflation came in cooler than expected, yet markets now price September as a coin flip and lean toward a hike by December. Tight money into a bear market’s final quarter is a headwind worth respecting.

• Spot ETF holdings have rolled over, slipping back below 1.25M BTC after peaking in late 2025. The buyer that absorbed everyone’s selling on the way up has gone quiet. Whether it comes back before Q4 is one of the bigger questions in this market.

• August and September have been red in every midterm election year on record (2014, 2018, 2022), with August the worst of the pair. Seasonality isn’t destiny. But if the next two months get ugly, nobody here will be surprised.

One Bitcoin bought 31 ounces of gold in October. Today it buys 16.

The week ahead

• The 200-week moving average, ~$63K. Price is sitting on it now. Weekly closes above it keep the recovery scenario alive. Losing it again would rhyme with 2022, where the second break was the one that mattered.

• Score 20. The line this entire issue is about. If it prints, you’ll hear from me, and my plan gets busy.

• ~$53K. The market’s collective break-even. If price goes looking for it, that’s the zone where every previous bear found its floor.

The close

Every bear before this one ran the same checklist, and this one has barely started it. That’s not a reason for fear. It’s a reason for a plan.

The founding cohort for CSH’s paid launch is capped at 100 people, and that number is real, not marketing. If you want to be in it, the waitlist is here.

See you next Sunday. Boring buys until then.

— Jake

Join the waitlist here

Two weeks ago I told you Bitcoin was sitting in the bottom 3% of its entire history.

Today the score reads 24.3. Bottom 20%.

The market didn’t move 17 points. The model did. And I’d rather explain exactly what happened in plain English than quietly update a number and hope nobody checks.

Because here’s the thing: if you’re going to trust a score with real decisions, you deserve to know when it changes and why. That’s the whole difference between a system and a sales pitch.

Why the score moved when the market didn’t

Our old model had a flaw we’d known about for a while. It compared today’s price against all of Bitcoin’s history, including the early years when BTC swung thousands of percent in months. Those moves will never repeat. Because they sat in the baseline, the score quietly read too low and could no longer reach the top of its own range. Useful, but drifting.

The rebuilt model (v4.1, live now) measures where price sits inside a fair value band that projects forward with the asset, instead of staying anchored to 2012. Same 0 to 100 scale. Same job. Better ruler. We validated it against 21 hand-captured cycle tops and bottoms across Bitcoin’s history and it reads them roughly 35% more accurately than the old model. I’m not going to dump the full methodology in a newsletter, but we’ve published the plain-language version on the site because a score you can’t interrogate is just vibes with a number attached.

So what does the new ruler actually say?

This is where it gets interesting, and honestly a bit uncomfortable.

Every Bitcoin bear market since 2014 has ended the same way on this model: the score spent real time below 20 before the turn. The 2015 bottom printed around 7. December 2018 printed about 15. At the November 2022 price low of $15,742 the score read 18, and it spent weeks under 20 either side of it.

This cycle’s lowest print so far: 21.5, on July 1, with BTC at $58,550.

Close. Not there.

Read that however you like, but here’s my honest read: by the standard of every previous cycle, we haven’t yet seen the kind of washout that historically marked the end. That’s one possibility. The other is that this cycle stays shallower, the same way each cycle before it has been shallower than the last. Our October 2025 top printed a score of 59, nowhere near the 74 plus readings of past manias. Compressed tops might mean compressed bottoms. The past doesn’t predict the future, and I’m not going to pretend the model is a crystal ball. It’s a map of where we are, not a forecast of where we’re going.

What I actually did about it, because a score without a decision is just decoration:

I bought on July 1. Not because I called the low (I didn’t know it was the low, nobody did). Because my plan had a trigger sitting under that price and the trigger fired. It felt like a nothing day. The score printed the cheapest reading of the entire cycle and my phone didn’t buzz once about it. That’s what real accumulation zones feel like: boring, quiet, slightly nauseating.

I’m still holding a decent chunk of dry powder, and its deployment schedule is written down in my plan, tied to score levels, not to how I feel on the day. If the score prints below 20, my plan buys harder. If it doesn’t and the market turns anyway, my regular DCA already has me positioned. Either way I don’t have to be right. I just have to follow the thing I wrote down when I was calm.

The rebuilt score is live on the app right now, along with the history so you can check every claim I just made against the chart yourself.

Create your free CSH account

CSH Risk Dashboard

The numbers as of tonight:

BTC $64,085, up 0.96% for the week. The score sits at 24.3, up 1.6 points (7%) over the same stretch, and in the bottom 20% of all readings since 2011. We’re in the 20 to 30 band, a zone BTC has occupied for about 15% of its 14.4 year history.

Callback, because the system keeps receipts: the July 1 low at $58,550 printed the cycle’s cheapest score, 21.5. Since then, price is up roughly 9.5% and the score has followed it up. Nothing about that changes the plan. The next tranche has its trigger and the trigger hasn’t moved.

Quick Hits

BTC reclaimed the 200-week moving average this week, sitting near $62.9k, after losing it on July 1. So what: that line is the long-term holder’s line in the sand, and the last two bears spent months grinding below it. A quick reclaim is constructive. My plan doesn’t trade moving averages, but it’s the same shift the score’s momentum read picked up this week.

One Bitcoin now buys about 15.5 ounces of gold, its lowest in about three years. Gold has pulled back hard, from a record near $5,100 in January to around $4,120, and BTC has still lost ground against it: the ratio has roughly halved since the October top, when a coin bought close to 30 ounces. So what: the hard-money bid went to gold first this cycle. When crypto cycles have turned in the past, this ratio has swung back fast. My plan doesn’t trade the ratio, but there’s no cleaner picture of how unloved BTC is right now.

Bitcoin dominance is at 59%. So what: alt season is nowhere on the radar. Bear market rule from the playbook: alts bleed longer and harder than BTC. The plan accumulates the index leader first and asks questions about alts much later in the cycle.

Jake’s Workbench: Ship week

Biggest build week we’ve had. Tom was a machine:

The CSH Score v4.1 went live for BTC, with ETH, SOL and XRP close behind. The website copped a full UI overhaul, charts and mobile included. And we ran a full security audit ahead of something we’ve been working toward all year: the paid founding plan.

Straight up on that last one: there will be exactly 100 founding spots, with discounted pricing locked in permanently. That cap is real, not marketing theatre, so when it fills, it fills. If you want first look, create a free account and you’ll hear it from me before anyone else. For the price of a couple of coffees a month you’ll get the score, the Plan Builder, and a dashboard that keeps you honest on the days you don’t feel like being honest.

One apology while I’m here: if you were running a live plan against score triggers this week, the model change moved your reading and I know that’s annoying. Short-term pain, long-term much sharper tool. Full changelog is on the site.

Create your free CSH account

The Week Ahead

Three things I’m watching, none of them requiring a prediction:

The 200-week MA near $62.9K. We reclaimed it this week after losing it on July 1. Holding above it is the first good sign; losing it again puts the lower supports back in play.

The score’s path toward 20. Every previous bear printed below it before the turn and this one hasn’t. If it gets there, my plan buys harder. If it doesn’t, the DCA already has me positioned. Watch the number with me on the app.

The gold rotation. If the BTC/gold ratio stops falling, that’s the earliest tell that hard-money capital is starting to look our way again.

The Close

We rebuilt our own model 10 to 12 weeks before asking anyone to pay for it, and the new version makes today’s market look less like the bottom, not more. That’s the least convenient possible outcome for us commercially, and we shipped it anyway. Systems over hype was never meant to be a slogan.

Here’s my question for you this week, and I’ll feature the best answers next issue: what score level would make you deploy your last third of dry powder? Reply with a number. Mine’s already written in my plan.

If this issue was useful, hit the heart. It’s how Substack decides who else gets shown it.

Talk next Sunday,

Jake

The phones rang all week at the exchange. Almost none of the calls were about the price.

That surprised me. BTC spent its first full week under the 200-week moving average since 2022, the CSH Score touched its lowest reading since the November 2022 bottom, and the thing Australian investors wanted to talk about was a compliance rule.

The travel rule went live on July 1. Between that, the end of the financial year, and the new super tax starting the same day, the desk was flat out. Repositioning, tax questions, people who read last week’s advice and waited until July to start their SMSF. And threaded through all of it, the same anxious question in a dozen different forms: is the government coming for my crypto?

Short answer: no. Longer answer below, because the fear is understandable and the facts are better than the vibes. There’s also a Score reading this week that has only happened three times before in fifteen years, and every time it mattered.

Let’s get into it.

CSH Risk Dashboard

CSH Score: 20.0 (BTC ~US$63,100 as of Sunday)

The Score spent almost the entire week below 20 and touched 15.5 on Wednesday 1 July, its lowest reading since the November 2022 cycle bottom printed 15.0. Sunday’s 20.0 sits in the bottom 6% of every daily reading since 2011.

Under the hood: long-term price position reads 18.2, short-term momentum 25.4, and market sentiment 23.0. All three components are in the green zone at once, which is rare.

Price context matters here. BTC closed last week near $61,600, just under the 200-week moving average around $62,660, and spent this week grinding back up to that line. The last time price spent real time below the 200-week was 2022. Below it sits the 300-week near $55K.

Plain-English read: this is statistically cheap. It is not a guarantee of a bottom. The Score read 15.0 in November 2022 and that was the low, but it also read under 16 for most of late 2011 while price kept chopping for months. Cheap is a condition, not a timestamp. The system’s job is to size your buying to the condition, not to call the day.

The Rule That Isn’t Coming for Your Crypto

From 1 July, every Australian exchange is required by AUSTRAC to collect and share information about the sender and recipient when crypto moves between platforms. It’s called the travel rule, it’s part of the AML/CTF reforms passed in 2024, and it applies to every transfer with no minimum threshold. A $5 transfer triggers the same data collection as $50,000.

I’ve spent months on the inside preparing for this, and the last fortnight fielding the panic. Three myths worth killing:

Myth 1: the exchanges are the bad guys. Exchanges didn’t ask for this rule. They’re legally required to run it or they get shut down. I’ll say the quiet part: most people building Australian exchanges are freedom-leaning crypto natives who hate paperwork as much as you do. And without trusted on-ramps and off-ramps, this industry doesn’t exist at the scale it does today. Blame the right party.

Myth 2: withdrawals are getting blocked. The opposite, mostly. Transfers to your own self-custody wallet still work, and under AUSTRAC’s own guidance they’re exempt from the information-sharing requirement between institutions. What changes is a few extra fields at the point of sending: is this your wallet, another exchange, or a third party. Provide it once per counterparty and it’s saved. If you’ve ever sent an international bank transfer, you’ve done this before.

Myth 3: it’s a stealth tax. It isn’t. No new tax was created on July 1 for ordinary crypto holders. It’s data collection for anti-money-laundering purposes, the same framework banks have operated under for years. The tax changes are real but separate, and they’re in Quick Hits.

Here’s my honest position. I want less regulation, not more, and I want crypto to keep its core promise as peer-to-peer electronic cash. But I’ve also sat across from people who lost six and seven figures to scammers, and traceability genuinely helps recover stolen funds and shut those operations down. It’s a balancing act, and this rule lands closer to “annoying paperwork” than “confiscation.”

What you should actually do: nothing dramatic. Keep good records, expect a couple of extra fields when you withdraw, and if self-custody matters to you, it still works exactly as it should.

Want your risk sized to conditions rather than headlines? Create your free CSH account and set your plan in Plan Builder.

Create your free CSH account

Jake’s Workbench

I bought this week. Small tier, midweek, with the Score at 15.5.

It felt bad, which is usually the sign it’s the right kind of buy. My plan has a tier for readings under 20 and the plan got the vote, not my gut. In 2021 my gut voted on everything and it cost me the entire bottom of the last cycle.

The bigger picture: I’m still sitting on a decent cash position, and the plan is to deploy it through CSH dynamic DCA between now and October. Not lump-summing, not waiting for a magic number. Sized buys, weighted by the Score, on a schedule. If we get one more leg down toward the 300-week, the tiers get bigger automatically. If we don’t, I’m already in.

That’s the whole point of building the system. The strategy was decided months ago on a calm day. This week just executed it.

Quick Hits

A $1.4 billion year. The US President’s financial disclosure, released Tuesday, showed roughly $1.4 billion in crypto-related income for 2025, including about $635 million in royalties tied to the $TRUMP token. That token peaked at $74.24 within a day of its January 2025 launch and now trades around $1.69, down 94%. So what: the people who launch these products get paid either way. Always check who profits from what you’re buying.

Division 296 is live. From 1 July, earnings attributable to super balances above $3 million cop an extra 15% tax. So what: most SMSFs are untouched, but if your balance trajectory could cross $3M this cycle, model it now, not later.

First weekly close below the 200-week MA since 2022. BTC closed last week near $61,600 against the ~$62,660 line. So what: reclaiming that level on a weekly close is the single cleanest signal that the worst is behind us. Until then, respect the downside.

The travel rule has no minimum threshold. Unlike most overseas versions, Australia’s rule applies to every transfer, any size, from dollar one. So what: don’t bother structuring small transfers; it changes nothing except your time.

The Week Ahead

The 200-week weekly close. The line sits near $62,660 and price is grinding right at it. Above it on a weekly close, the relief rally has legs. Below it, the 300-week near $55K stays the base-case magnet.

New financial year flows. July 1 unlocked a wave of SMSF establishments and contributions. I’ll be watching whether that structural bid shows up in the data while retail stays absent.

The Score under 16. Only four periods since 2011 have printed sub-16 readings: late 2011, January 2015, November 2022, and this week. In January 2015, BTC was $178 and sat at $430 a year later. In November 2022 it was $15,781 and above $35,000 a year later. Base rates, not prophecy. But I know which side of that history I want to be positioned on.

The Close

Everyone is kicking crypto right now. Engagement is at cycle lows, the grifters are cashing out, and the asset just closed below a level it hasn’t lived under since 2022. This is exactly what the best accumulation windows in fifteen years of data have looked like. Zoom out, trust your plan, and lock in.

Bull markets make you money. Bear markets make you bloody rich.

Create your free CSH account and let the Score size your next buy.

Create your free CSH account

Talk next week, Jake

I sit at a crypto exchange during the day. The clearest signal I’ve seen all year isn’t on a chart. It’s who stopped calling.

Retail has quietly disappeared. The everyday buyer who was here eighteen months ago has thinned right out, and the money still coming through the door is increasingly super money. Self-managed funds, deploying on a schedule, unbothered by the red.

The two trends are happening at once, and they say more about human behaviour than any indicator I could show you. Retail got washed out. Some ran out of capital. Most just lost interest the day prices stopped going up. What’s left standing are the people whose money is locked in super, who can’t touch it and won’t flinch with it.

That’s the whole thing in one sentence. Most people invest on emotion. They buy strength and disappear in weakness. The ones still here are behaving systematically almost by accident, because the structure forces them to.

That gap, between buying on feeling and buying on a system, is the exact reason we built CSH.

CSH Risk Dashboard

BTC: $59,893 | CSH Score: 17.3 | Zone: Deep accumulation | 7-day score change: -18.4%

The Score is at 17.3. That’s the bottom 3% of every reading since 2011.

To put that band in context: the last bear market bottom printed 15.0 in November 2022, with price at $15,781. The most recent all-time high, $124,774 last October, carried a score of 65.4. We’re sitting much closer to the first number than the second.

The three things that drive the Score all point the same way right now. Long-term price position, the heaviest input, reads 16.8. Short-term momentum is at 18.7. And market sentiment, the Fear and Greed read, is down at 18.0, which is extreme fear. When all three are this low at once, you’re deep in the part of the cycle nobody enjoys living through.

Here’s how I’m reading the move. BTC closed below its 200-week moving average this week, around $62K, a line it has rarely spent real time beneath. I think we now test the 300-week, currently just under $55K. That’s the level price sat below for roughly seven months through the last bear, from August 2022 into early 2023, around the FTX collapse. It’s not a line we just kissed and bounced off. We lived under it for a while. My base case isn’t a straight line down from here. I can see a relief rally back toward the bear-market band first, then one more leg lower into Q4 that does the real work.

That’s a view, not a forecast, and I hold it loosely. The part I’m acting on is the Score, not the path.

The dip that used to scare me

In 2021, a 10% drop would make me feel physically sick. I’d sit there refreshing the screen, running the same three questions on a loop. Should I sell to free up cash. Is this the bottom. Are we going lower.

I never had an answer, because I never had a plan. So I’d freeze. And the freezing is what cost me. I had the conviction in that first bear market. I believed in the asset. I just had no system that made me act on it, so I waited for a cleaner signal that never came, and I under-bought the exact zone I’d spent months waiting for.

That’s the regret that still sits with me from 2022. Not a trade I made. The BTC I didn’t buy.

This week BTC fell through $60K, and I noticed something had changed. The sick feeling was gone. In its place was something closer to relief. Same person, opposite reaction, and the only difference between the two cycles is that one had a system behind it and one had nothing.

Now when price drops, the Score drops with it. My average buy price comes down. I get to put capital to work in a band that has rarely shown up in 15 years of history. The dread became opportunity, and not because I got braver. It changed because I stopped trusting my gut and started trusting a number.

That reframe only works because two things are true now that weren’t true in 2021. I have cash set aside, waiting. And I have a number I trust to tell me when to spend it.

So I’ve spent most of this year sitting on my hands, waiting for the Score to slip under 20. It did. I’m accumulating BTC and only BTC, because it still carries the best risk-adjusted setup I can see, and I think the broader alt market needs one more proper reset before it goes anywhere. The backdrop isn’t doing risk assets any favours either, between rate pressure at home, sticky inflation, and money chasing AI names and private-market hype. So I’m holding the line on the BTC-first plan.

In ten years I doubt it’ll matter whether I bought at $60K, $55K or $40K. What will matter is that I built the position, instead of waiting for a bottom that only ever looks obvious once it’s gone.

Want the number I’m building this plan around? The CSH Score is free.

Create your free CSH account.

Jake’s Workbench

A reminder for anyone setting up a self-managed fund for crypto right now. The start date matters more than people expect, and we are days away from it mattering a lot.

A few of the trustees I speak to are deliberately waiting until 1 July to deploy. The logic is simple. Begin in June and you’re generally up for a full year of fund running costs plus a tax return for a few weeks of actual activity. Wait for the new financial year and you skip the FY26 paperwork altogether. For a brand new fund that can be the difference of a couple of thousand dollars in accountant fees, for no change to the actual strategy.

This isn’t advice on whether to set one up. Plenty of people get that part wrong by rushing. It’s a timing point worth raising with your accountant before you do anything this week, because the window closes when the financial year resets.

Quick Hits

Price closed below the 200-week. BTC slipped under its 200-week moving average this week, around $62K, a level it has rarely spent real time beneath. So what: historically this line has marked deep value, but it has never been tested in a rate environment like this one, so treat it as context, not a guarantee.

Extreme fear, again. The Fear and Greed Index is parked in extreme fear, which feeds directly into the Score’s sentiment input. So what: sentiment this washed out has lined up with accumulation zones before, but it can stay washed out longer than feels comfortable.

SpaceX has given back a third of its peak. Two weeks after we wrote about skipping the biggest listing in history, SpaceX (SPCX) has fallen from a high of $225.64 on 16 June to around $153 now, roughly a 32% drop from the top. So what: not a victory lap, and I’m still bullish on the company on a ten-year view. The lesson is about hype absorbing attention and capital, then mean-reverting, the same pattern that plays out in crypto.

Retail’s quiet exit. The clearest read from the exchange seat this year is how thin the everyday buyer has become. So what: when retail gives up is historically closer to the bottom than the top, though “historically” is doing a lot of work in that sentence.

The Week Ahead

1 July, financial year reset. Watch for SMSF capital that’s been parked on the sidelines to start deploying once the new year ticks over and the paperwork penalty disappears.

The US jobs report, the print that matters. The June nonfarm payrolls land this week, the single biggest macro event on the calendar. Consensus is around 100,000 jobs added with unemployment near 4.3%, a result that would keep the Fed on hold in July. A surprise either way shifts rate expectations, and rate expectations move risk assets like BTC.

A new voice at the Fed. Kevin Warsh makes one of his first public appearances as Fed Chair this week. Markets will be listening for any signal on the rate path now the chair has changed, especially with pressure building for cuts.

Thin liquidity into the long weekend. US stock and bond markets are closed Friday 3 July for the Fourth of July holiday. Lighter volume around a long weekend can exaggerate moves, so don’t read too much into a sharp candle on low participation.

The 200-week as the line in the sand. Whether BTC reclaims that level or stays beneath it tells you more than any headline. My base case is a possible relief rally toward the bear-market band, then one more leg lower into Q4, but I hold that loosely. The Score is the thing I’m acting on, not the path.

The Close

The market this year has been a sorting machine. It’s quietly separated the people investing on emotion from the people running a process, and only one of those groups is still standing.

You don’t need to call the exact bottom. You need a number you trust and the discipline to act on it before it feels safe, because by the time it feels safe the discount is gone.

The Score’s at 16.9. I’m telling you where it is, not what to do with it. Create your free CSH account and see the same number I’m building my plan around.

Create your free CSH account.

See you next week.

— Jake

It was quiet on the desk again this week. Not panic-quiet. Bored-quiet. The phones don’t ring because nobody wants to think about Bitcoin at all.

That sounds like bad news. After enough cycles, you learn to read it as the opposite.

Bitcoin doesn’t always bottom on a single violent crash that washes everyone out in an afternoon. Sometimes it bottoms on exhaustion. A slow grind, sideways and down, until the last person who was going to give up finally has, and stopped looking at the chart.

There are two kinds of capitulation. Price capitulation is loud: the crash, the red candle, the headline. Time capitulation is silent, and it’s the harder one to sit through, because nothing tells you it’s over. You just slowly stop caring. The boredom does the work the crash usually does.

That second kind is what this feels like. And I’ve stopped fearing it, because it’s the stage that comes before the turn, not after. So this week I stopped trying to pick the exact low and went looking for something more useful: what the data actually does before a bottom arrives.

CSH Risk Dashboard

The CSH Score sits at 21.2 today, with Bitcoin around $64,200. On 7 June it dipped into the mid-teens at the $60,862 low, putting us in the bottom 7% of every reading since 2011. On a fifteen-year scale of cheap to expensive, we’re near the cheap end.

Here’s the part I only saw this week. Digging through our all-time chart, the one that lets you click any era and read what the Score said at the time, and I went hunting for one thing: where did the Score sit right before each bear market ended.

The pattern was cleaner than I expected. In four of the last five bears, the Score fell below 20 before the bottom was in. 2015 hit 15. The 2020 COVID crash hit 19. 2022 hit 15. The only exception in fifteen years was 2018, which bottomed without the Score ever leaving the high 20s.

This cycle has already been below 20. That doesn’t time the bottom, and I won’t pretend it does. It tells you which neighbourhood you’re standing in, and right now it isn’t the expensive one. That’s the whole job of a risk gauge. Not prophecy. Position.

For the curious, what’s driving the Score today: long-term price position is doing the heavy lifting at 19.8, short-term momentum at 25.8, sentiment at 23.0. All low. None screaming. A quietly cheap market, not a crashing one.

Why the boring number beats the bottom call

Half my inbox is some version of the same question: is this the bottom. I can’t answer it, and you should be wary of anyone who says they can.

So instead of an answer, here’s a system that doesn’t need one.

Start with the calendar. The second half of US midterm years (2014, 2018, 2022) has historically been one of the stronger windows to be buying Bitcoin on a schedule. We’re in one now. Pair that with a Score in its bottom decile and you don’t have a prediction, you have a starting point. A reason to buy steadily, on a schedule, without needing to nail the exact low.

Now the chart I keep coming back to, because it’s the heart of this issue and simpler than it sounds.

It’s the percentage of supply in profit versus in loss. Picture every coin in existence. For each one, ask: was it last bought above or below today’s price? Above, it’s “in profit.” Below, it’s “in loss.” Add it all up and you get two lines that map the mood of the whole market. When nearly everything’s in profit, people are complacent. When the loss line climbs and a big share of coins are underwater, that’s pain, and pain is what bottoms are made of.

Here’s the history. At each of the last three bear bottoms, the loss line climbed above the profit line first, then the price low followed. But the gap between the cross and the low was different every time, and naming those gaps is the honest way to use this:

• 2015: the lines crossed in January, and the low landed within days.

• 2018: they crossed during the November capitulation, and Bitcoin bottomed on 15 December, around three to four weeks later.

• 2022: they first crossed mid-year after the spring crash, and the low didn’t arrive until 21 November. Roughly five months.

So the same setup has resolved anywhere from days to five months out. The cross is a precondition, not a starting gun. Right now the lines read 52.6% in profit, 47.4% in loss, churning around the halfway mark, the zone they pass through before a bottom forms. We’re in the right part of the story. We’re not necessarily on the last page.

Which is why I’ve stopped trying to be right about the low and started being consistent about the buy. When this cycle’s in the rear-view, it’ll matter far more that I kept accumulating through the boring part than whether I called the day. Nobody rings a bell. The schedule is the bell.

Create your free CSH account

Jake’s Workbench

Most of my spare hours this week went into refining that all-time chart and digging through what it shows. The idea was simple: stop asking people to trust the number and let them check it instead. Click back to any point since 2011 and see what the Score read at the time. Every top. Every bottom. Mark our homework yourself.

But with the whole fifteen-year history open, a second chart caught my eye, and it’s the uncomfortable one. I’d be doing you a disservice to leave it out just because it doesn’t fit the bullish story.

It’s the Terminal Price model, and what matters is two reference lines. The Realized Price is roughly what the whole market actually paid for its coins, the market’s cost basis. Below it sits the Balanced Price, a deeper fair-value line. The pattern: in every previous bear, price didn’t just dip toward these lines, it sliced through the Realized Price and wicked down toward the Balanced Price before the selling was done. That’s what a full detox has looked like every time.

Today, Realized sits around $53K, Balanced near $38K, and Bitcoin at roughly $64K. We haven’t even touched the first line, let alone the second. If this cycle rhymes with the last three, there’s a path into the low $40s before it’s genuinely over.

So here’s where I stand, both things at once. My base case is constructive: the Score’s in the bottom 7%, the seasonal window is favourable, and I’m still accumulating with conviction. But I’d rather show you the bearish read I can’t rule out than sell you a floor I can’t promise. A system that only works if the number goes up isn’t a system. It’s a hope with a logo.

One more thing, quietly. A few of the people testing the chart have started asking how to get the full version. It’s coming. More on that in the weeks ahead.

Quick Hits

• The Score hit its lowest since the last bear bottom. It touched the mid-teens at the 7 June low of $60,862, the cheapest reading on our gauge since 2022.

• The market is split roughly 50/50 underwater. Supply in profit/loss reads 52.6% / 47.4%, the lines churning in the zone they’ve crossed before past bottoms.

• The US and Iran signed a ceasefire framework, and for us it’s an oil story. It’s a 60-day memorandum to negotiate, signed 17 June, not a done deal, and already strained. The angle that matters here: a calmer Strait of Hormuz means easier oil, and oil has been the main thing feeding the inflation that keeps the Fed hawkish. Less oil pressure, more room for risk assets to breathe. Worth watching, not banking on.

• Kevin Warsh ran his first Fed meeting, and the style change is the story. Rates held at 3.50 to 3.75% on 17 June. The shift was how he communicates: forward guidance dropped, no rate projection of his own, the statement cut to 130 words. Markets sold off after. His line is that markets “perform best when they react to incoming data,” which means less hand-holding and sharper moves both ways. A less predictable Fed is a choppier ride for everything, Bitcoin included.

• Division 296, the $3M super tax, becomes law on 1 July. The threshold is per person, so a couple can hold up to $6M across two balances before it bites. Relevant for anyone weighing Bitcoin inside an SMSF.

The Week Ahead

A lot of smart people are circling October, twelve months on from the October 2025 top, as the seasonal window for a low. I lean that way too. But markets owe us nothing, and a macro shock could force the loud kind of capitulation before the slow kind finishes. What I’m watching:

• A new Fed chair finding his feet. Warsh will guide the market less and let the data talk more. Expect sharper reactions to each inflation and jobs print while everyone learns his style.

• Whether the Iran ceasefire holds. A fragile 60-day framework, not peace. If the Strait of Hormuz genuinely calms, oil eases and so does inflation pressure. If it breaks, the opposite. The macro swing factor for the next two months.

• Seasonality, honestly. September has historically been the weakest month for equities, though that softens when the trend going in is healthy. Worth knowing, not worth fearing.

• Whether the IPO froth cools. SpaceX just completed the largest listing ever, with Anthropic and OpenAI lined up behind it. A wobble in that enthusiasm tends to spill into crypto risk appetite.

None of these are forecasts. They’re the cracks worth watching while you keep executing your plan.

The Close

Boredom isn’t the enemy. It’s the toll you pay on the way to the other side. The people who build a plan during the quiet don’t have to make decisions during the noise.

The whole issue in three lines: the data says we’re in the right neighbourhood, one honest model says we might still have lower to go, and neither changes what you actually do. Keep buying the plan. Stop trying to be right about the day.

Build the plan. Run it. Let the boredom do its work.

— Jake

Create your free CSH account

The biggest IPO in history happened this week, and I didn’t buy a single share.

SpaceX went public on Friday. Not just a rocket company. This is the business behind Starlink’s global internet network, the launch provider the rest of the industry depends on, and an AI arm folded in through the xAI merger. The stock opened, ripped, and by the close the company was worth $2.11 trillion. To put that in plain terms: one company is now worth more than every Bitcoin in existence, and very nearly as much as every cryptocurrency on earth combined. Elon Musk became the first person in history worth more than a trillion dollars, on paper, in a single afternoon.

My phone lit up. Customers at work asking how to get in. Mates who’ve never bought a stock suddenly wanting a piece. And every time the whole room leans one way like that, I’ve trained myself to ask the same two questions. Where’s my edge here? And where’s everyone else’s?

I don’t have one in SpaceX. Neither, if we’re honest, do you. So I did the boring thing instead and bought more Bitcoin.

CSH Risk Dashboard

The CSH Score bottomed at 16.6 last weekend, the cheapest Bitcoin has read on risk since November 2022. It’s since ticked up to 18.8 as price bounced off $60K back toward $63.8K. Either way, we’re in the bottom few percent of nearly fifteen years of daily readings, and we just dipped under February’s panic low of 18.9.

The more useful lens this week isn’t the number, it’s the calendar. Bitcoin is doing in 2026 what it tends to do in US midterm years: sell off hard and carve out a major low somewhere around the middle of the year. It happened in 2018 and again in 2022. Worth being honest about how those played out, though. In both cases the mid-year low was not the final low. 2018 bottomed properly in December, six months later and far lower. 2022 bottomed in November at $15,781. So a low forming now fits the pattern, but it doesn’t mean the low is in.

Here’s why that distinction matters less than it looks. If you’re trying to pick the exact bottom, you’re playing a game almost nobody wins, this week or any week. If you’re running the CSH Score and a Plan Builder strategy, you’re not picking a day. From the bottom of the risk range, you’re accumulating into weakness on a schedule and letting the system size the entries. Whether the floor is $60K now or something lower in Q3 or Q4, the playbook from a reading this low is the same: this is the part of the cycle you DCA through, not the part you sit out waiting for a signal that only ever looks obvious in hindsight.

Bitcoin’s also sitting almost exactly on its 200-week moving average near $62,000, the line that has floored every prior cycle. It doesn’t have to hold. But on risk, on where price sits against its own long-term trend, this is deep value, and the system is flashing greener than it did in February.

Why I’m not buying the biggest IPO in history

Back to SpaceX, because the real lesson of the week has nothing to do with rockets.

Three reasons I sat it out.

Start with the maths. SpaceX priced at a $1.77 trillion valuation on about $18.7 billion of revenue. Meta earns more than ten times that revenue and is valued below where SpaceX opened. At that price you’re not buying a business, you’re buying a story about the next twenty years, and you’re buying it at the most expensive, most hyped moment in the company’s life, from the people who got in early and are finally taking their exit. If you’re retail buying the open, you’re the liquidity they’re selling into. Musk himself is locked up and can’t sell for over a year. Worth sitting with, that one.

Then there’s the edge, or my lack of one. The engineers and funds who held SpaceX equity for a decade had an edge, and they’ve been paid for it. The person buying on day one off the back of a headline has none. One of the most expensive lessons crypto ever taught me was the difference between a good company and a good investment, and how to spot when I’m the sucker at the table. In 2021 I bought tokens I didn’t understand because everyone around me was up 300%. I know exactly what that feeling costs, because I’ve paid it.

The last reason is the one I actually like. While every eyeball on earth is pointed at a rocket company and the word “trillionaire,” almost nobody is talking about Bitcoin. It’s been left for dead again. The calls at work went quiet at $60K, same as they did in February. That’s precisely the setup I want. You don’t get to accumulate the premier digital asset at the bottom 2% of its risk range while the room is excited about it. You get to do it while the room has wandered off to look at something shinier.

Edge is knowing which game is yours. Mine isn’t a trillion-dollar IPO I’d be buying on vibes. Mine is a fifteen-year risk model that is, right now, about as loud as it gets.

Want to see where the CSH Score sits right now?

Create your free account

Jake’s Workbench

We shipped this week, market chaos and all. The all-time chart now renders Bitcoin on a proper logarithmic scale, so the early years are actually readable instead of a flat line hugging zero. We also squashed a bug in the price-label toggles. Small stuff, but it’s the difference between a tool you trust and one you fight.

Two of us build CSH on nights and weekends, and one of us writes the code. Neither of us could move at this pace without AI handling the parts that used to eat days. The point was never to outsource the thinking, it was to clear the boring work out of the way so the thinking is all that’s left. A bigger overhaul of the dashboard and the plans section is coming. It’s going to look the part.

Quick Hits

SpaceX cracked $2 trillion intraday. At its session high the company touched roughly $2.21 trillion, brushing right up against the entire crypto market’s $2.26 trillion. One company, nearly all of crypto.

Bitcoin had its worst week since February. The driver wasn’t a hack or a ban, it was the spot ETFs running a sustained run of outflows. The flows that powered the rally up are now pulling the other way, and they tend to stabilise before price does.

The score dipped under its February low. 16.6 last weekend against 18.9 in February. Cheaper on risk than the drop that scared everyone three months ago, with far fewer people paying attention this time.

The Week Ahead

Watch ETF flows above everything else. A few days of net inflows would be the first real sign the selling has worn itself out.

Keep an eye on whether $62K holds. That’s the 200-week moving average, the line that’s floored every past cycle. A weekly close below it would be worth respecting. Holding it would be the system’s read confirmed by the chart.

And watch the noise. As long as the headlines are about rockets and trillionaires instead of Bitcoin, the accumulation window stays open.

The Close

The biggest IPO in history was the easiest no I’ve made all year. Not because SpaceX is a bad company, but because it wasn’t my game, and I’ve paid enough tuition to know the difference now.

The score is at the bottom of its fifteen-year range and the room has looked away. I know which of those two facts matters to me.

Buy where you have an edge. For me, this week, that was clear.

Create your free CSH account and see the score for yourself at cryptosuperhub.com.au.

Create your free account

— Jake

Funny thing about missing a week. You come back and see it clean, with none of the day-to-day noise that makes you flinch. And what I see is simple. This is the cheapest Bitcoin has been, on our framework, since the depths of 2022.

It might still get cheaper. But the thing we built CSH for is happening right now, and I’m acting on it. This is a longer edition than usual, because there’s a lot worth thinking through this week and I’d rather give it the room than rush it.

CSH Risk Dashboard

The CSH Score closed at 16.6 on Friday, with BTC at roughly $61K. That’s the bottom 2% of every reading since 2011.

Sit with that for a second. Out of fifteen years of daily data, only 2% of days have been cheaper on this measure. The last time we were down here was November 2022, post-FTX, score 15.0, Bitcoin at $15,781.

Here’s the part that matters and the part I won’t dress up. Back in February the score dipped under 20 and I called it a great entry. We’re now lower. Bitcoin is below its February low of around $62.8K, and the score at 16.6 is under February’s 18.9. So this isn’t the system taking a victory lap. February was a green light. This is a greener one.

The engine reads three things: where price sits against its long-term trend, which carries most of the weight, plus short-term momentum and the Fear and Greed Index. All three point the same way right now. Long-term position is deep in accumulation territory, momentum is stretched to the downside, and sentiment is in the dirt.

Plain English: the data says this is a buying zone, not a selling one. What the data can’t tell you is whether it gets cheaper first. That’s where history helps.

What the score says about June 2018 vs June 2022 vs now

This is the part you can’t get from a price chart, and it’s the whole reason we built the score.

People look at a falling price and panic. The score lets you ask a sharper question: have we been here before, and what happened next? Because we have fifteen years of daily readings, we can line up this exact moment against the same moment in past bear years and see how it actually played out.

Start with June 2018. Price had fallen hard, sentiment was grim, and plenty of people called the bottom. But the score in June sat around 50. Not cheap. Middle of the range. Anyone reading the score honestly would have known the move wasn’t over, and it wasn’t. Bitcoin fell another 45% into a December bottom near $3,200, where the score finally dropped to 27. June looked scary. The score said it wasn’t cheap yet. The score was right.

Now June 2022. Different story entirely. The score hit 17.8 at the June capitulation low, deep value territory. From there Bitcoin chopped lower, FTX blew up in November, and price bottomed at $15,781. But the score at that final bottom was 15.0, only about three points below where it already sat in June. In other words, by June 2022 the score was already screaming, and the last five months were mostly price grinding sideways-to-lower while the reading stayed in the teens.

So which June does 2026 look like? It’s not close. We’re at 16.6 right now. That’s June 2022 almost exactly, and nothing like the ~50 of June 2018. The score is telling us we’re already in the deep-value zone, not staring down into it from halfway.

Here’s the payoff, and I’ve checked the numbers. Buying when the score was this low in past cycles worked, as long as you had patience. From the November 2022 bottom, Bitcoin was up 73% within six months and 179% within a year. From the December 2018 bottom, it was up over 300% within six months. The score didn’t call the exact day. It called the zone. And buying in the zone, then waiting, is the entire game.

None of this is a promise it repeats. It’s the honest historical context the score makes visible, and almost nobody else in this space can show you their data going back fifteen years. We can.

Why I’m buying here, and why I’m not going all in

I’m buying this week. Similar size to my February buy, into my SMSF, against the score the same way I always do. When the number goes below 20, I add. No timing the candle, no waiting for a feeling.

But I’m leaving plenty of dry powder, and here’s the honest reasoning.

June tends to mark a low in bear-market years. The final low usually lands later, roughly twelve months after the cycle top, which would put it around October. We tagged the all-time high of $124,774 last October. Do the maths and Q4 this year is exactly where you’d pencil in the real bottom if history rhymes.

So I think there’s time. I wouldn’t be shocked to see us test the 300-week moving average, the way we did in 2022 when price sliced clean through the 200-week and kept going. Right now we’re sitting right on the 200-week at about $61.8K. That’s the level everyone’s watching as the floor. The lesson from last cycle is that the level everyone watches doesn’t always hold.

This is the bit the loud accounts get wrong. It isn’t “back up the truck” or “it’s dead.” Both things are true at once. Buy here, because the data says these prices are rare. Pace yourself, because the cycle says you might get a better one. Whether you buy at $60K, $50K, $40K, or you split it across all three, in ten years you will be very happy you bought down here. The mistake is emptying the clip on day one and having nothing left when it really hurts.

That’s not indecision. It’s a plan you build before the emotion hits, which is the entire point of the system.

Create your free plan here

Jake’s Workbench

While I was offline, Tom shipped a proper upgrade to the score-and-price chart, and the timing turned out perfect for the cycle comparison above.

You can now drag to select any range on the chart and it snaps straight to that window. And we added clickable score-band pills above it, so you can highlight exactly where price sat when the score was, say, 10 to 20, and watch how rare those stretches actually are. The score line stays coloured through the bands you pick and greys out the rest.

So everything I just walked through with 2018 and 2022, you can now go and check yourself. Pull the chart, click the 10 to 20 band, and see every stretch we’ve been this low and what price did next. The week the score hits the bottom 2% is exactly the week you want people to be able to interrogate the history rather than take my word for it. The number on its own asks for trust. Letting you dig into the data earns it.

We build this at nights and on weekends. Seeing it go live the same week the framework is screaming its loudest signal in years is the good kind of coincidence.

Quick Hits

The altcoin temptation is real, and this week showed why it’s dangerous. A handful of names have outrun Bitcoin over recent months. Hyperliquid’s HYPE is up around 190% across 2026 and flipped Solana on price. Zcash, NEAR and Worldcoin all had strong runs. Then the music stopped. Arthur Hayes, who’d spent weeks loudly talking up HYPE, ZEC and NEAR as his “holy trinity” and even bet $100K that HYPE would beat Solana this year, dumped HYPE and NEAR on Wednesday, his entire ZEC bag on Thursday after a bug surfaced in Zcash’s Orchard pool, and his Worldcoin on Friday. WLD fell 28% in a day. Days earlier he’d posted “HYPE to $150.” That’s the alt game this deep in the cycle. The generational entries for alts will come. This isn’t the moment.

Stocks wobbled hard but they’re still up near records. The Nasdaq fell more than 4% on Friday, its worst day since early 2025, on a violent sell-off in chip stocks. Even so the S&P is still up around 10% on the year and sitting near all-time highs, so this is a pullback inside an uptrend, not a breakdown. The story is the divergence. Bitcoin couldn’t hold the line and just had its worst week since February, with a record run of ETF outflows. When an asset can’t rally with everything else near records, that tells you where it is in its own cycle.

Watch the liquidity drain from mega IPOs. There’s a wave of huge listings building, SpaceX, Anthropic and others reportedly lining up for late this year. Hayes flagged three mega AI IPOs between now and early Q3 as one reason markets could top before September. Big new issuance soaks up cash that might otherwise chase risk assets like crypto. Worth keeping on the radar.

The Week Ahead

Watch the 200-week moving average at around $61.8K. We’re sitting on it. A clean hold and reclaim would be the first sign the worst is behind us. Lose it with conviction and the 300-week comes into the conversation, which is the scenario I’m keeping dry powder for.

Watch the score. If it keeps sliding toward the low teens, that’s not a reason to panic, it’s the framework telling you the opportunity is widening. Below 20 I’m a buyer. Lower just means I buy again.

Watch the ETF flows. The record outflow streak is what tipped this week from a dip into Bitcoin’s worst week since February. If those flows stabilise, it’s an early tell that the selling is exhausting itself.

The Close

I came home to a market that had fallen out of bed and a risk score in the bottom 2% of all time. I’m not scared of that. The history says this June looks like 2022, not 2018, and buying the deep-value zone has paid the patient every time it’s shown up. So I’m buying it, carefully, with a plan I wrote before the fear arrived.

I’ve been reading The Bitcoin Standard this week, and it’s sharpened why I do any of this. Hard money, free markets, an exit from the slow squeeze of inflation and debasement none of us signed up for. That conviction is what makes a week like this feel like opportunity instead of disaster.

If you want to see where the score sits, pull the history yourself, and build a plan you can actually stick to when it gets ugly, create your free CSH account at cryptosuperhub.com.au.

Create your free plan here

Buy boring. Pace yourself. See you next week.

Jake

The phones went quiet this week.

Not silent. Quiet in that specific way I’ve learned to recognise from the desk. The people still calling aren’t panicking and they’re not chasing. They’re the ones with a ten-year plan who worked out a long time ago that the best entries feel terrible. Mostly SMSF money. Calm money. The kind that shows up when everyone else has left the room.

Meanwhile stocks are printing all-time highs and Bitcoin can’t catch a bid. BTC just lost the bull market support band and bounced straight off the 200-day on the way down. Risk-on everywhere else, and crypto still couldn’t hold the line. That tells you something the price alone doesn’t.

The CSH Score reads 29.6 today. Bottom 14% of every reading since 2011. We’ve been here before, and the people who understand what that means are already buying.

CSH Risk Dashboard

Score: 29.6 — down 5.4 over the week (-15.4%)

BTC: $73,749 Zone: Long-term accumulation

The breakdown: long-term price position 29.6 (70% weight), short-term momentum 35.8 (15%), market sentiment 23.0 (15%). Sentiment is the standout. Fear and Greed sitting at 23 tells you the crowd is scared, and scared is where the score earns its keep.

Some context that matters. The last time we were near this level was 5 February 2026, BTC at $73,172. The most recent all-time high was $124,774 on 7 October 2025 at a score of 65.4. The previous bear market bottom was $15,781 in November 2022 at a score of 15.0.

Read that last number again. The score can go lower. A reading under 20 has historically marked the entries people talk about for years, and I’d be surprised if we don’t see one before this is over. The plain version: we’re cheap, we’re not yet at “everyone has given up” cheap, and the distance between those two states is where the real opportunity lives.

Where Do We Actually Bottom?

Attention now shifts from the 200-day to the 200-week.

For most of the last two years the 200-day moving average was the line that mattered. We’ve now rejected off it hard, and it’s flipped from support to resistance. So the question every long-term holder is quietly asking is the right one: if this is the next leg down, where does it end?

History gives us a map. In bear markets, Bitcoin tends to find its way back to the 200-week moving average. That sits around $61.6K right now. It’s the level that has caught price again and again across cycles, and it’s the first number I’d circle on the way down.

But “tends to” isn’t “always stops there.” In 2022 we didn’t just touch the 200-week, we sliced clean through it and kept going. Price went below the 300-week, which today sits near $53.7K. That’s worth sitting with. The deepest part of the last bear didn’t respect the level everyone was watching. It went lower, flushed everyone out, and then it bottomed.

So here’s how I’m holding it. A move to the 200-week around $61.6K would be a textbook bear market retest and a serious accumulation zone. A wash below it toward the 300-week near $53.7K would be 2022 all over again, and historically that’s the kind of move that marks a generational entry rather than a trap. Neither is a prediction. Both are levels I want my plan built around before we get there, not after.

And the timing lines up with the cycle. In the last two bear years, 2018 and 2022, June produced a lower low that wasn’t the final low. The final low came later, deeper into the year. The further into 2026 we get, the more weight I’d put on a big flush actually marking the bottom rather than just another leg.

This is the work. Not predicting the exact number. Knowing the levels, knowing what the score is likely to read at each one, and having decided in advance what you’ll do. The Plan Builder is built for exactly this kind of “if X, then Y” thinking, while you can still think clearly.

The Boring Money Is Buying

Here’s what most people miss about a market like this.

When the score dropped under 20 in early February and BTC touched $60K, that was a genuinely great entry. The score then climbed back to 40 by mid-May with BTC at $82K. Anyone who’d simply bought against the framework instead of their feelings would be sitting comfortably right now. No charts. No timing. Just a number telling them the odds had shifted.

That’s the whole point of a system. It doesn’t ask you to be brave. It asks you to be consistent.

We’ve just dropped back under 30 and into the accumulation zone. If you’ve been waiting for a signal, this is the kind of reading the framework was built for. And if we get the sub-20 print I’m expecting later in the year, the system will be flashing the same message it did in February. The only question is whether you’ll listen to it or to the noise.

The noise will be loud. It always is at the bottom.

Jake’s Workbench

Quick one this week, because I’m writing this before I head away.

The CSH Score has been live since February, and watching it work in real time has been the most satisfying part of this whole build. It called the February bottom. It called the May rally. It’s now telling us we’re back in accumulation. Three for three on the big moves, with not a single discretionary opinion from me.

That’s the difference between a tool and a take. A take needs you to trust the person. A tool just needs you to trust the data, and the data is checkable. That’s the entire reason CSH exists instead of being another signals group.

If you haven’t pulled your own reading yet, it’s free at cryptosuperhub.com.au.

View the live CSH Score

Quick Hits

The CGT overhaul hit Parliament this week. Treasurer Chalmers introduced the tax reform bill to the House on 28 May, bundling four measures together: the CGT changes, new negative gearing limits, a $250 worker and sole trader offset, and a $1,000 instant deduction. Nothing was walked back from the Budget. The substance is as announced.

It’s now headed to a Senate inquiry. Within hours of the bill landing, a Senate inquiry into the CGT elements was announced, partly under pressure from the Coalition. So the path from here is: House, then the inquiry, then the Senate, with the government racing to pass it before the planned 1 July 2027 start. It is not law yet, and the inquiry could still shift the detail.

What’s actually proposed: the 50% CGT discount replaced with inflation indexation plus a minimum 30% tax on gains from 1 July 2027. It’s prospective. Gains accrued on existing assets before the start date keep the 50% discount. This squarely affects assets held personally.

Super sits outside these CGT changes. The reform targets individuals, trusts and partnerships. The super framework wasn’t part of the package, so the concessional treatment inside super is expected to continue. The gap between holding personally and holding in super has arguably never been wider. Separately, Division 296 (the extra tax on very large super balances) is already legislated and starts 1 July 2026.

BTC lost the bull market support band. Sharp rejection off the 200-day weekly MA, which is now acting as resistance. The structure that held through the whole 2023–2025 run has flipped.

The Week Ahead

Watch the 200-week at ~$61.6K. If we keep grinding down, that’s the first major level history points to. How price behaves there tells you a lot.

Watch for a sub-20 score. If selling accelerates, the framework will move fast. Have your accumulation plan written before that happens, not during.

June seasonality. In the last two bear years, June produced a lower low that wasn’t the final low. Worth holding in mind if we drift lower from here.

The Close

I’m away for the next week, so this one’s going out while I’m off the grid.

If the score drops while I’m gone, don’t wait for me to tell you. The whole point of building a system is that it works without anyone holding your hand. Pull your reading, check your plan, act on the number.

Create your free CSH account at cryptosuperhub.com.au and see where we sit.

See you on the other side. — Jake

View the live CSH Score

A client messaged me on the weekend. He runs an SMSF, he’s exactly the sort of person I write this for, and watching close to two grand vanish from his Bitcoin in a couple of days had killed any urge to buy more.

I get it. The phones at work have gone quiet again. That rush we saw when Bitcoin was pushing past $80,000 has drained away, and what’s left in the customer base right now is mostly fear. Bitcoin is a volatile asset. It isn’t for everyone, and anyone who tells you the lows feel good has never sat through one.

Here’s the thing, though. I haven’t added to my own Bitcoin since February, and the reason isn’t fear. It’s closer to the opposite. I’ll come back to that.

This week, two things. First, where the Score actually says we are, and how that stacks up against the last two bears, because the real picture is calmer than the panic around it. Second, the SMSF questions that filled my inbox after last week, because plenty of you already have one foot in this and want to know how it really works.

Let’s get into it.

CSH Risk Dashboard

Score: 32.8. Price: $76,646. Fear and Greed: 28 (Fear).

Here’s the detail worth pausing on. Price barely moved this week, down less than 1%, yet the Score still dropped about 10% (down 3.9 points). That gap tells you the weakness is under the surface: a flat price slipping further behind a long-term trend that keeps grinding higher, with momentum and sentiment both softening underneath it.

Rewind to February, though, and the bigger picture is the one that matters. We were in the depths of the capitulation back then, a Score of 18.9 with Bitcoin briefly on a $62,853 handle. We bounced hard off that low, ran straight into resistance, and we’re now handing some of the bounce back. We are not at the lows.

In plain English: the model puts fair value at $131,532, and we’re trading a long way beneath it. The floor sits at $47,322, the ceiling at $168,129. At 32.8 we’re in the bottom 17% of every reading since 2011, which has historically been an accumulation zone, not a panic one.

What changed this week is momentum, not the structure underneath. The bounce stalled around $82,000, right at the 200-day moving average, and buyers couldn’t reclaim it. That line is the divide between “deep correction” and “back in the game.” Until price clears it, the path of least resistance is sideways to lower, and the Score agrees: low 30s and drifting, not basing yet.

The SMSF Questions You Actually Asked

Last week’s piece on the Budget’s CGT changes lit up my inbox more than anything I’ve written in a while. Almost all of it came down to one question: “alright, how do I actually do this?”

Before I answer, the part only I can tell you.

I set up my SMSF at the end of 2022 and started buying Bitcoin inside it in early 2023. Best financial decision I’ve made, full stop. The reasoning was simple. Like most Australians, nearly all my wealth sat in two places: a house and my super. The house I can’t do much with. My super I couldn’t point at the assets I had the most conviction in, Bitcoin and crypto, because a standard retail fund just doesn’t let you. An SMSF was the only door into that.

Here’s the part I find funny now. I ran it past a financial adviser first, and they told me not to. They quoted the usual line, that you want a balance of around $500,000 before an SMSF makes sense on cost, which for me back then would have taken decades. That number isn’t plucked from thin air. It’s a real cost consideration, and ASIC has pointed to it. It just didn’t fit my situation, or my conviction that Bitcoin was badly underpriced coming out of the 2022 bear. So I backed myself. I was rewarded with entries in the $20,000 to $30,000 range, and my only regret is not buying more.

That’s my story, not your instruction. Your situation is yours, and a licensed adviser and a good accountant are exactly who should pressure-test it. But you should at least know which questions to ask, because the internet is full of confident wrong answers. Here are the ones I keep getting.

“Can I move my existing Bitcoin into the fund and skip the CGT?”

No. Moving coins you already hold into your SMSF counts as a sale at market value, so it triggers the tax rather than dodging it. On top of that, the rules generally don’t let your fund acquire assets from you in the first place. The clean path is the simple one: the fund buys its own Bitcoin, with its own money, from here. The tax advantage is for what you build inside the fund, not a back door for the stack you already own.

“Do I have to hand my coins to someone else, or can I hold them myself?”

You’ve got options. Your SMSF’s Bitcoin can sit in your own cold storage wallet, completely compliantly, which surprises a lot of people. Or you can hold it with a compliant exchange. I work at one, Coinstash, so weigh that how you like, but the criteria are what actually matter: Australian, licensed, one-to-one asset backing, and independently audited. Either way, the rules don’t change. The coins have to be held in the fund’s name, kept entirely separate from anything you own personally, valued in Australian dollars at 30 June each year, and documented well enough to pass the annual audit. Self-custody is allowed. Sloppy self-custody is how you fail that audit, and that’s exactly where a good accountant earns their fee.

“How long does it take, and what’s the holdup?”

It varies, and you’ll hear very different numbers. In my experience, with a good accountant handling the paperwork, it’s weeks rather than months. I’ve also heard people quote around six months and a couple of grand to set up. The holdup is almost never the crypto. It’s picking the right accountant and getting the trust deed and investment strategy done properly. The costs come out of the fund, and if your strategy is simple, buy and hold, the ongoing fees stay low.

“I can’t touch it for decades, and what if the government changes the rules?”

Fair, and worth taking seriously. Super is preserved, so you generally can’t access it until you reach preservation age, now 60 for most people, and meet a condition of release. And yes, rules can change. But two things. You almost certainly already have super, because your employer is required to pay 12% of your wage into it every year, money that’s sitting there whether you think about it or not. So the real question isn’t “super or Bitcoin.” It’s whether you want a say in what your existing super holds, or you’re happy leaving it in a retail fund clipping fees for a single-digit return. As for the rules changing, that’s true of nearly everything. It’s a reason to stay informed, not a reason to freeze.

And one more thing, because the Budget just proved the point. Last week’s changes scrapped the 50% CGT discount for individuals and replaced it with cost-base indexation plus a 30% minimum tax on real gains from 2027. They left super alone. So inside an accumulation-phase SMSF you’re still looking at roughly 10% on long-held gains, and 0% once the fund is in pension phase, while holding personally just got more expensive. The gap between the two didn’t shrink. It widened. For most Australians building wealth for the long haul, it’s hard to name a more tax-effective structure in the country right now.

To be clear about my own setup, the SMSF is my long-term safety net, not the whole plan. I’m also building for now, a business and personal Bitcoin, because I want options well before I’m 60. Both, not either.

The CSH Score reads the same whether your Bitcoin is personal or in super. Same data, same signals, different tax outcome. Create your free account and run your own numbers.

Create your free account

Jake’s Workbench: Same Rhythm, Shallower Cycle

So, why haven’t I bought since February?

It isn’t fear, and it isn’t a timing hunch. It’s the system doing exactly what it was built to do. When the Score dropped below 20 in February and Bitcoin had a $62,000 handle, that was the Ladder screaming its loudest, and that’s when I backed up the truck. The Ladder buys harder the lower the Score goes. It doesn’t buy the same amount every week under 40. The deepest fear gets the biggest buys, that reading came in February, and I acted on it.

At a Score of 33, after a 30% bounce, with the 200-day rejecting us and momentum rolling over, the system isn’t telling me to empty the clip. It’s telling me to keep some dry powder for the readings that pay the most. My base case, and I’ll happily be wrong, is that we test the $60,000s again and probably go lower into the back half of the year. If that plays out and the Score prints deep fear a second time, that’s when I get aggressive again. If history rhymes, the bottom likely lands in Q4, and Q4 bottoms tend to be the entries you talk about for years.

And to head off the obvious question: no, I haven’t gone off dollar-cost averaging. A simple, regular buy is still the best thing most people can do, and if that’s you, keep going, it beats trying to pick the exact top and bottom every time. What I run is the dynamic version of the same habit, sized to the Score. Lean in hard when fear is on the floor, ease off after a bounce like this one. Right now we’ve bounced, so I’ve eased off. Same discipline, different dial setting.

So why call it a shallower cycle when the chart looks so familiar? Because the shape and the depth are two different things.

The shape rhymes, no argument there. Bears move to a rhythm: a sharp drop, a consolidation, a counter-trend rally that drags everyone back in, then another leg down. We just lived the rally-into-lower-high part. Bitcoin did the same in 2022, running to nearly $47,000 in late March before getting rejected and bleeding to under $20,000 by June. It did it in 2018 too, when every bounce failed and the market ground all the way down to $3,200.

The depth is where the doom takes fall apart. This top was never euphoric. The Score peaked at 65.4 last October, against 85 at the 2021 top and 91 back in 2017. We never got the blow-off, the leverage, the taxi-driver mania that powered those monster crashes. And the crashes matched the mania: down 77% in 2022, down 84% in 2018. This time, at the worst of it, we’re down about 50% from the October high, and the model’s floor is $47,322, not a number with one fewer digit. The sequence rhymes. The depth probably won’t, because we never paid for it on the way up.

I’m not the only one landing here, either. Ben Cowen’s latest macro memo reaches a similar place from completely different ground, reading the US economy rather than the crypto charts. His point is that midterm years like 2018 and 2022 tend to see weakness early, then a stabilisation, then the more serious leg later in the year, once tight policy and high yields have had time to bite. He flags Q3 and Q4 as the window to watch, and he’s clear that none of it is an imminent, this-week event. Two models, two starting points, same window. When that happens, I listen.

Quick Hits

• Don’t count on a Fed rescue. Cowen’s memo makes the case the Fed is boxed in: energy-driven inflation pushing one way, a slowly cooling jobs market the other, so it can’t cut freely. Oil is the swing factor here, and lately it’s been violent, spiking above $110 before falling back near $97 in the past week. With liquidity already tight, the easy-money tailwind crypto keeps waiting on may not show up soon. Be wary of anyone promising a sharp V-shaped bottom.

• We’re trading at a steep discount to trend. Price is $76,646 against a model fair value of $131,532. That’s around 42% below where the trend says fair value sits, and historically a gap that size has been a discount worth respecting, not a signal to run for the exit.

• Fear is back, but not at the lows. Fear and Greed sits at 28. The February bottom printed a Score of 18.9 with sentiment far uglier than this. That was the level that actually paid, and we’re not there yet.

The Week Ahead

• The level above: $82,000. The 200-day moving average, and the line that matters most. Reclaim and hold it, and the “the turn is in” version of the shallower-cycle case gets real legs. Fail it again, and the lower-high read stays in charge.

• The level below: around $62,900. The February low is the floor that counts. If we retest it, how the Score behaves there will tell us more than the price will. A second sub-20 print is a very different message from a higher low.

• The window: Q3 into Q4. Both my read and Cowen’s macro point at the same stretch as the period where this either resolves or gets more serious. The trigger to watch is inflation, and right now that mostly means oil. If it pushes back above $110 and drags bond yields up with it, that’s what turns “shallower cycle” into “second leg.” If it keeps easing, the patient case gets much stronger. Watch that, not the daily candles.

The Close

The lows are quiet and they’re uncomfortable, and a rejection at resistance feels like proof the worst is still coming. Sometimes it is. But the data this week is calmer than the mood: a cycle that rhymes with the bad ones without ever earning their depth, a Score sitting in the zone that’s historically rewarded patience, and a system that already did its heavy buying when it counted and is happy to wait for the next time it does.

That client who got spooked isn’t wrong to feel it. He’s just feeling price. The job is to read the cycle off data instead, and that’s the entire point of the Score. Create your free CSH account and see where we stand for yourself.

Create your free account

See you next week.

Jake

I’m going to be honest with you. When I read the Budget papers on Tuesday night and saw Labor was scrapping the 50% CGT discount, my first thought was simple: this is structurally bad for Australia.

Halve the discount. Add a 30% minimum tax floor on top. Replace what’s left with cost base indexation. The signal it sends to anyone trying to build, invest, or compound long-term capital in this country is the wrong one. Builders read these signals. They move.

This isn’t just bad for crypto investors. It’s bad for every Australian trying to invest outside super.

But buried in the Budget papers is one line almost every mainstream piece missed. SMSFs are excluded. The 33% super discount stays. The 15% accumulation rate stays. The 0% pension rate stays.

That’s the silver lining.

While individuals just had their effective crypto tax rate jump from around 23% to a range of 30-47%, the gap between holding BTC personally and holding it in your SMSF just got materially wider. The same Budget that created the problem handed crypto investors the obvious solution.

The case for holding crypto in Australia got weaker this week. The case for holding it inside an SMSF got significantly stronger.

CSH Risk Dashboard

Current CSH Score: 36.7 (down 2.0 points over the last seven days, -5.2%)

BTC Price: US$77,778 (down 5.05% on the week)

Percentile Since 2011: Bottom 20%

Score breakdown: long-term price position 37.0 (70% weight), short-term momentum 40.8 (15%), market sentiment 31.0 (15%, Fear & Greed in Extreme Fear).

Last issue I asked if this was a bear market rally. The 200-day moving average answered for me. BTC tested the 200-day around US$82,000 four times across two weeks. Rejected four times. It broke below US$80,000 last Thursday and has stayed below ever since. As of Sunday, BTC sits around US$77,800.

That’s textbook bear market rally behaviour. Sharp rally from local low. Test of major resistance. Failure. Roll over.

That said, BTC is now sitting right in the middle of the Bull Market Support Band, between $78,693 (20-week SMA) and $75,767 (21-week EMA). That band has consistently marked key support during crypto bull markets. Hold it on a weekly close, and the bull thesis stays intact. Lose it, and we’re in a different conversation.

The score doesn’t care about the rejection though. At 36.7 we’re in the Bottom 20% of all readings since 2011. The last time we sat near this level was 31 January 2026 when BTC was at US$84,142, about 8% higher than today. Buying at scores in this band has historically worked.

Plain English read: technical structure says the rally has failed. The score says we’re still well inside the buy zone. Both can be true. The system buys low scores regardless of what the candle looks like.

Why Super Walked Free

Here’s the part of the Budget the headlines glossed over.

From 1 July 2027, Labor is replacing the 50% CGT discount with cost base indexation plus a 30% minimum tax floor on capital gains. The reform applies to individuals, trusts and partnerships. Gains realised before 1 July 2027 still get the 50% discount, so it’s not retrospective.

The 30% isn’t a ceiling. It’s a floor. There’s no path under it for individuals. No matter how long you hold, no matter what your marginal rate would otherwise be, your gains get taxed at at least 30%.

But here’s the bit you need to know if you’re an Aussie crypto holder.

Super funds, including SMSFs, are explicitly excluded.

The Treasury fact sheet and budget papers carve them out. SMSFs keep their existing 33% CGT discount on assets held more than 12 months. They keep the 15% income tax rate in accumulation phase. They keep the 0% rate in pension phase.

Let’s do the maths on what that means for crypto held longer than 12 months.

Outside super, top marginal taxpayer:

• Pre-reform: 47% marginal × 50% discount = roughly 23.5% effective

• Post-reform: 30-47% effective. The 30% acts as a floor. The marginal rate after indexation acts as a ceiling.

• That’s a jump of anywhere from 28% to nearly 100% on the same gain.

Inside SMSF, accumulation phase:

• 15% income tax × 67% (after 33% discount) = roughly 10% effective

• No change

Inside SMSF, pension phase:

• 0% effective

• No change

The gap between holding BTC personally and holding it in your SMSF has roughly doubled in width. That’s not a minor adjustment to your retirement planning. That’s a structural reframe of where you should hold long-duration crypto if you’re an Australian investor.

A caveat. These changes are proposed in the Budget, not yet legislated. They need to pass Parliament. The 30% floor and indexation maths get complex once you layer in non-resident provisions, trust distributions, and small business concessions. If you’re considering restructuring or starting an SMSF specifically for crypto, talk to a licensed financial adviser and an SMSF specialist accountant. CSH is education, not advice.

But the strategic question this week isn’t whether to buy. The score says you can. The strategic question is which account you should buy it in.

Jake’s Workbench

Plan Builder went live three weeks ago. The timing for this Budget news is accidental but useful.

Here’s the workflow I’ve been running since Tuesday. Open Plan Builder, set the BTC amount you want to deploy this cycle, choose Adaptive scaling. The tool weights buys toward lower scores. More allocated at scores below 40 (today’s 36.7 qualifies), less above 60.

The argument for Adaptive over Static DCA isn’t that it always wins. Across 22 historical entries in the 35-50 band, it beat Static DCA on win rate (91%) and outperformed on drawdown protection.

Now layer this week’s tax change on top. Running an Adaptive plan inside an SMSF, the calculus sharpens. Lower entries, plus a 10% effective tax on the eventual gain. The maths compounds differently from outside-super crypto, where you’re now looking at 30-47% on the same gain.

This isn’t an argument to rush an SMSF setup. They have real costs and ongoing compliance. It’s an argument to model both scenarios properly before 1 July 2027. Existing assets get grandfathered. The clock matters.

Open Plan Builder

Quick Hits

Clarity Act cleared the Senate Banking Committee 15-9 on Thursday. Two Democrats joined all 13 Republicans, including Senators Gallego and Alsobrooks. The bill still needs to clear the full Senate (60-vote threshold), pass the House, and reach the President’s desk. White House target is signing by 4 July. BTC initially rallied to around $82,000 on the news, then sold off below $80,000 within 48 hours and hasn’t reclaimed it since. So what: US market structure clarity is bullish over 12-24 months, not 12-24 hours. Don’t trade the headline.

BTC rejected at 200-day MA for the fourth time in two weeks. The 200-day sits around $83,000. BTC hasn’t closed above it in seven months. Analyst Benjamin Cowen compared the setup to 2018, which tested the 200-day in a bear market rally and rolled over. So what: technicals confirm we’re still in a downtrend until the 200-day breaks. The CSH Score has been reading this for weeks.

BTC drawdown now sits at 37.7% from the $124,774 ATH on 7 October 2025. For context, the 2022 bear drew down roughly 77% from $69K to $15,781. The 2018 bear drew down roughly 84%. We’re not there. So what: “deep enough” is relative. The score is in the Bottom 20% percentile, but BTC has historically gone deeper.

The Week Ahead

Watch BTC vs $80,000. That level held through April. Lost on Thursday and BTC has stayed below ever since. Reclaiming it on a daily close is the first stabilisation signal. The next support levels are $75,800 (Strategy’s average corporate cost basis) and $71,500.

CSH Score recovery to 40+. Today’s 36.7 sits well below the 40 threshold. A move back above 40 with BTC stabilising would confirm short-term momentum is shifting. Below 35 means we keep accumulating into deeper fear.

SMSF chatter is about to spike. Aussie financial advisers will be busy modelling the new CGT maths. Expect more SMSF crypto discussion in the next month than you’ve seen all year. Some of it will be sales-driven by SMSF promoters. Filter accordingly.

The Close

Last issue Richard asked in the comments whether the lower low was still coming. The honest answer from this week’s data: the 200-day rejection makes another leg down more likely than less likely. The score will catch it if it happens.

Three weeks ago we launched Plan Builder for exactly this kind of environment. Low scores. Volatile structure. A clear case for Adaptive scaling. If you haven’t set it up yet, that’s the action this week.

If this issue helped you think more clearly about your structure, hit the heart at the bottom. That’s how Substack decides who else sees it.

Jake

Create your free CSH account

I work at a crypto exchange full time. The job is a front-row seat to market psychology.

When BTC dumped to $60K in February, our phones went quiet. No new accounts. Existing customers went silent. Cheapest BTC in 18 months and nobody wanted to touch it.

Three months later we’ve rallied 30%. May has been one of our busiest months of the year. New accounts. Old accounts re-funding. The same people who couldn’t be paid to buy at $60K are now buying at $80K.

Most people invest with the heart, not the head. Not because they’re stupid. Because they don’t have a system to point them the other direction when feelings are loudest.

That’s why CSH exists.

And it’s why I’m watching this rally carefully. I’ve seen this setup three times before. The pattern doesn’t change.

Is this a bear market rally?

CSH Risk Dashboard

BTC: $80,678 | CSH Score: 40.3 | Sentiment: Neutral

The Score’s been climbing for 12 weeks. Bottom was 18.9 on Feb 6 with BTC at $62,854. We’ve added 21 points to the Score over 90 days. Today’s reading is 40.3.

That just nudged us into the mid-range zone (40-60).

For context, 40.3 sits at the 24th percentile of all-time Score readings going back to 2011. BTC has been below this level only 24% of the time in its entire history. We’re well clear of deep value, which we left in early March. Not in danger territory either, that doesn’t kick in until 60.

But we just stepped over a threshold that matters in the framework.

Here’s why. Every previous bear market had a counter-trend rally that pulled the Score off the lows, then failed. The 2022 mid-bear rally pulled the Score from 18 to 35. The 2018 rally pulled it from 50 to 69. The 2014 rally pulled it from 59 to 62.

Today’s signature, 19 to 41, most closely matches 2022.

That’s not a prediction. It’s a pattern.

The One Thing That Matters

Bear markets don’t go straight down. They have rallies that feel like recoveries. Money piles in. Headlines turn. People who were terrified at the lows convince themselves the worst is behind them. And then price rolls over and goes lower.

It’s happened three times in BTC’s history.

Look at 2022. BTC bottomed in June at $19K with the Score at 18. Over the next two months it rallied 29% to $24K and the Score climbed to 35. The mood shifted. Newsletters went bullish. Anyone who’d been waiting “for confirmation” stepped in. Then FTX collapsed and BTC dropped another 35% to $15.7K. The actual bottom came in November.

The 2018 rally was even spookier looking back. BTC bottomed at $5,854 in late June 2018, rallied 43% to $8,397 by late July, then dropped 62% to $3,212 by December.

Now move the decimal one place. $58,540 bottom. $84,000 rally peak. We bottomed at $62,854. Rally peak so far is $81,425. Within a few percent of an exact 10x replay. Are we living in a simulation? Probably not. But the rhyme is loud.

Three cycles, same script. Different magnitudes, same shape. Rally hard enough to convince people it’s over. Then go lower.

Now look at where we are. BTC bottomed in February at $63K with the Score at 19. We’ve rallied 30% to $80K and the Score is at 40. We’re 7 months after the cycle peak. The signature most closely matches 2022.

So what do you do?

The wrong question is “is this rally real?” Nobody knows. You don’t know. I don’t know. The right question is: what rules are you going to use?

Two investors. Same starting capital. Same monthly cadence. Different rules.

Investor A buys more when price rises off the lows. The rally feels like proof. Position size scales with confidence. He looks like the customers I described in the opening.

Investor B sizes by Score. Under 25 means triple normal DCA. 25 to 40 means standard. 40 to 60 means half. Above 60, pause.

Same money in. Different timing.

Look at where the money landed during the 2022 bear. Investor A’s biggest buys went in at $44K and $46K, when the rally felt strongest. Investor B’s biggest buys went in at $19K and $20K, when the Score said deep value.

Same instinct, opposite trigger. A trusted the rally. B trusted the rule.

Across all three bears, Investor B’s average buy price was 29% lower than Investor A’s. Held to the next cycle peak, Investor B’s returns beat Investor A by 175 to 1,630 percentage points.

The system doesn’t tell you whether this rally is real. It tells you how to size into it. That’s the only decision that matters.

Jake’s Workbench

Here’s what I’m doing personally with the Score at 40.

I’ve stopped DCAing.

Not selling. Not changing the long-term thesis. Just paused the buying. Score at 40 is in the mid-range zone. My rule says pause.

Next trigger is Score back below 30. If we drop into deep value territory again, I resume aggressive DCA. If the Score keeps climbing through 50 instead, I stay paused and let what I already have do the work.

That’s the framework running. No drama. No FOMO into a rally that might not hold.

The Plan Builder we shipped last month codifies exactly this. Adaptive scaling does what Investor B did in the backtest. Bigger entries at low Score, smaller entries as Score climbs. Set it once, the system handles the rest.

Honest reason I built it this way: I knew myself well enough to know I’d FOMO into rallies if I had to make every call manually. The system is the guardrail. You can build yours here.

Create your free account

Quick Hits

BlackRock’s IBIT crossed 812,000 BTC. That’s about 3.8% of total Bitcoin supply held by a single ETF. Spot ETFs added $1.7B over five straight days last week with IBIT leading. So what: structural buyers absorb selling pressure from coins underwater between $80K and $120K. Doesn’t change the bear-or-bull question. It does mean the floor is firmer than the 2022 cycle had.

Exchange reserves hit a 7-year low. Whales net-bought 270K BTC over the last 30 days. So what: less BTC sitting on exchanges ready to sell. Even if the rally fails, the floor is firmer than any prior cycle bottom had.

Glassnode flagged BTC crossing two key cost basis levels. True Market Mean and Short-Term Holder cost basis. So what: when price holds above both, most active investors sit in profit. Normally a constructive setup. Worth watching whether it sustains or rejects in the coming week.

Powell’s term as Fed Chair ends May 15. That’s this Friday. Kevin Warsh is the leading candidate to replace him. Hawkish on rates, but reportedly more open to financial innovation and crypto deregulation. The next FOMC isn’t until June 16-17.

The Week Ahead

Powell’s last day: Friday May 15. Watch the Warsh confirmation timeline and any signals on rate cut path. Markets tend to overreact to Fed transitions in the first 48 hours.

$85K is the level. Multiple desks flag it as the next major resistance. A clean break and hold above $85K would invalidate the 2022 parallel and start to look more like a real recovery. Failure to break extends the bear-rally pattern.

The Score’s path matters more than price. We just stepped into the mid-range zone at 40. Watch whether 50 holds as resistance. Every previous failed rally showed the Score climbing through the 40s, hitting a wall, then rolling over. If it punches through 55 with conviction, the bear-rally thesis weakens.

The Close

Three bears. Three rallies that fooled people. One question that’s still open.

The data doesn’t tell you what’s going to happen. It tells you how to be positioned for either outcome. Investor B didn’t need to know in 2022 whether the August rally would hold. The system handled it.

Genuine question: are you DCA-ing through this rally, or sitting on the sidelines waiting for confirmation? Reply with 1 or 2.

See you next week.

Jake

Create your free account

This week’s Score reading: 39.1. The bottom 23% of all Bitcoin readings since 2011.

When the Score sits in the 35-50 band, our Adaptive rule has beaten Static DCA in 91% of the 22 historical entry windows we tested. That’s the cleanest signal I have for what to do right now.

Quick context if you’re new: Adaptive is the rule we just shipped in the new Plan Builder. It scales your buy size with the Score. Bigger orders when the Score is low (the cycle’s cheap). Smaller orders when the Score is high.

Now to what’s awkward about it.

Across 15 years of Bitcoin data and 112 rolling 4-year windows, the Adaptive rule’s median outcome was $607K. HODL’s median outcome was $999K. By the simplest measure, the rule loses to just stacking and never touching it. Everyone who tells you their system “beats HODL” is selling you the upside without admitting the average.

I shipped it anyway. I’m running it for my SMSF. The X article published this week walks through every backtest window.

There’s one calculation that reconciles the 91% with the loss on the median. It has nothing to do with what HODL averaged.

CSH Risk Dashboard

The Score added 2.7 points on the week to that 39.1 reading. BTC ticked up 0.86% to $79,051, basically flat.

That’s a 7.4% lift in the Score on a sub-1% price move. Price barely budged. Cycle position kept improving in our favour.

Where this Score sits historically: bottom 23% of all readings since 2011. Fifteen years of daily data, and we’re still in the cheapest quarter Bitcoin has ever traded in.

Component breakdown: Long-term price position 37.3 (the 70% weight). Short-term momentum 39.6. Sentiment 47.0. The first two are still saying “we’re in early-cycle accumulation territory.” Sentiment is the only one creeping back toward neutral, which makes sense after Bitcoin closed April up 11.87%.

Last time the Score sat near 39: January 29, 2026. BTC was $89,162 then. Today BTC is over $10,000 cheaper at the same Score reading. That’s the kind of dislocation between price and risk the system is built to surface.

Plan Builder action this week: still in the 30-50 band. Adaptive rule fires at 2x base. Same rule, same action, no decisions to second-guess.

Create your free CSH account

See the live Score and start building your own rule.

Median Is the Wrong Measure

Most investors optimise for the median outcome. Read any HODL-vs-DCA debate online and the argument always lands the same way: “this strategy outperformed in the average case.”

That framing assumes the average case is the case you’ll experience. It isn’t. You only get one path through the cycle.

The question that matters isn’t “what happened on average across 112 backtest windows.” It’s “what happens if I get the bad version?”

Here’s where the rule earns its keep.

HODL median across the backtest: $999K. Adaptive rule median: $607K. HODL wins by $392K on the typical outcome.

But:

HODL floor (worst case across 15 years of data): $140K. Adaptive rule floor: $320K. The rule wins by $180K when conditions go against you.

The Adaptive rule’s floor is 2.3 times higher than HODL’s. That’s the bargain. You give up upside in the typical scenario in exchange for a much better floor when the world doesn’t cooperate.

This matters more if your money has a deadline. SMSF money has a deadline. The cycle doesn’t care about your timeline. If your retirement window lands at the wrong point, the typical case isn’t comforting. The floor is what determines whether the plan still works.

It gets more interesting when you start a rule from where the Score sits today.

In the 35-50 entry band, the Adaptive rule beat Static DCA in 91% of 22 historical entry windows. From this exact starting condition, you’re not trading upside for floor. You’re winning on both.

A specific case: someone deploying $100K starting February 2022, when the Score sat where it sits now. HODL produced $217K over four years. Static DCA produced $325K. The Adaptive rule produced $414K.

Same starting capital. Same 4-year window. Different system.

That’s not a guarantee for the next four years. Past distributions don’t lock in future ones. But it’s why I’m still running the rule even after seeing the median number.

I’d rather give up upside on the average case than risk the floor on the only case that’s actually mine.

Jake’s Workbench: The Plan Builder Is Live

Tom shipped the new Plan Builder this week. Biggest update we’ve made since launch.

Quick walkthrough.

The flow used to start with “what do you want to buy and how much.” The new one starts with “what does your goal look like” and runs through five steps: Goal, Plan type, Score range, Execution, Review. Each step is a real decision the system needs from you.

The headline new feature is Adaptive scaling.

Old version: pick an amount, set a schedule, buy on autopilot. The system told you when, you decided how much. That’s a static DCA wrapped in a CSH skin.

New version: pick your active Score range (the band where you want to be buying), pick your base order, choose how aggressively the system scales up at the lower end of your range.

Quick example: A$1,000 weekly base, set to 500% scaling. At the top of your range, orders fire at the base. At the bottom, they scale up to A$5,475. Same plan, dramatically different size depending on where the Score sits.

That’s the Adaptive rule. Same logic that beat Static DCA in 83% of backtest windows. Same one I’m running for my SMSF. Now you can build your own version of it in five steps.

Open the app, pick your range, set your scaling, and the system handles the rest.

Create your free CSH account

Quick Hits

Bitcoin dominance still sitting at 60.93. Even with Bitcoin closing April up 11.87%, dominance hasn’t dropped meaningfully. So what: the rotation thesis keeps getting pushed back. Capital coming back into crypto is going to BTC first, ETF wrappers second, almost nothing into long-tail. If you’re holding alts waiting for them to “catch up,” the macro structure isn’t doing you any favours.

ETH/BTC at 0.02949. ETH bounced briefly above 0.031 in mid-April but has given the move back. The ratio peaked above 0.08 in 2021 and has been on a multi-year decline. So what: the historical pattern (BTC pumps, then ETH outperforms, then alts catch up) hasn’t fired this cycle. Either the rotation comes back hard or the framework is permanently broken.

Fed held at 3.50-3.75% in an 8-4 split. The most dissents at a single FOMC meeting since 1992. Three voted against the easing bias in the statement; one wanted a cut. So what: this isn’t a calm Fed. The committee is openly fractured on whether the next move is a cut or a hold-longer, and dissent ratio matters because it signals real divergence on inflation persistence. Same morning, Warsh cleared the Senate Banking Committee 13-11 along party lines, teeing up a full Senate vote.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs absorbed $2.44B in April. Strongest month of inflows in 2026, nearly double March’s $1.32B. So what: the marginal buyer is institutional and demand returned with force right as price was bottoming. CryptoQuant flagged the rally as futures-driven and called spot demand weak. That suggests the run-up has been leveraged speculation in front of the institutional bid, not because of it. Worth watching whether spot accelerates from here or fades.

The Week Ahead

Warsh confirmation vote, week of May 11. The Senate is out this week, so no movement until then. Warsh needs a simple majority and Republicans hold 53 seats. Powell’s term as Chair expires May 15, but he confirmed at last week’s press conference that he’s staying on the Board of Governors past then (his governorship runs to January 2028). So what: the Fed transition is now near-locked. The question is what tone Warsh sets at the June FOMC, and whether Powell’s continued presence on the board changes the dovish-hawkish balance.

April CPI release Tuesday May 12. March printed +0.9% month-on-month and +3.3% year-on-year. Sticky enough to keep the Fed cautious. A softer April number would give the rate-cut narrative a clean runway. A hotter print pushes cuts into the back half of the year.

ETF flows post-FOMC. Spot Bitcoin ETF flows are the cleanest read on institutional positioning right now. Watch for a divergence between price action and flow direction. If price runs but flows stay flat, it’s a retail rally. If flows accelerate, the institutional bid is back.

The Close

The Score moved this week. The plan didn’t. The Adaptive rule did exactly what it was designed to do. Same rule, different action, no decisions to second-guess.

I built a system that loses to HODL on the average outcome. I shipped it for my SMSF anyway. The math on the floor explains why.

Reply with the worst case you’ve built into your plan. The floor is the conversation worth having before the next leg down.

Plan Builder is live now. Build yours in five steps.

Create your free CSH account

— Jake