Crypto Super Hub — The CSH Weekly Brief | July 26, 2026
Every SMSF call I take ends the same way.
We get through the paperwork. Trust deed, bank account, custody, audit trail. All the stuff that keeps people out of trouble. Then there’s a pause, and I know exactly what’s coming.
“So. Should I buy now? Should I wait? What do I actually buy?”
I can’t answer that. Not won’t. Can’t. The person asking might be 42 with twenty years of runway, or 68 with three. They might sleep fine through a 30% drawdown or lose their mind at 10%. Nobody can answer that question for someone else, and anyone who does is guessing.
But hundreds of people have asked me it now, and it’s the reason Tom and I built CSH. So this week I’m giving the only honest answer I’ve got: exactly what I do with my own money, and the system that runs it. Not so you copy it. So you can see what a system looks like, and build your own.
Everything below runs on the free version of the app.
The CSH Risk Dashboard
CSH Score: 25.6/100 — Early Cycle (steady, +0.7 on the week). Bottom 22% of every reading since 2011, and the 52nd straight day inside the 20–30 band.
Key indicators:
BTC: US$64,492 / A$91,717 (7d: roughly flat)
BTC Dominance: 59.2%
ETH/BTC: 0.029
TOTAL3/BTC (alts priced in Bitcoin): 0.37 — prior cycle bottoms washed out near 0.25
Fear & Greed: 26 - Fear
Total market cap: $2.27T
Callback: Last issue I said three things had to happen before this bear could end, and that none had. A week on, the count is still zero for three. The only change worth noting: BTC clawed back above its 200-week average (~US$63.3K). Necessary, nowhere near sufficient.
Jake’s read: A fortnight of sideways chop between roughly US$62K and $66K, with the score parked in the mid-20s the whole time. Boring tape, loud macro. My plan changed nothing this week, and that was the plan.
How I invest my own money
No headline this week. The question above matters more than anything in the news cycle, so here’s my answer, in three rules.
Rule one: measure against two benchmarks. I track my portfolio in dollars and in Bitcoin. The second number keeps me honest. If your alts doubled while Bitcoin tripled, you went backwards. You just didn’t notice, because you were only watching the dollar number. Fifteen years in, BTC is still the benchmark of this whole asset class. If I’m going to hold anything else, it’s because I genuinely think it’ll beat Bitcoin. Otherwise, why hold it?
Rule two: core first, and know your limits. Right now I’m 100% Bitcoin. Zero altcoins. That’s not forever, it’s just what fits my life. I’ve got a family, a full-time job at an exchange, and I’m building CSH on the side. Altcoin rotation is a job for someone with hours I don’t have. I know because I tried it last cycle, with a bag of alts and no plan, and got rekt while Bitcoin quietly beat almost everything I was holding. The lesson wasn’t that altcoins are bad. It was that my portfolio has to fit my actual life. Start with BTC as the core. Add complexity only if you’ve got the time and skill to carry it.
Rule three: let the system do the buying. My money runs on a dynamic DCA through the CSH score. Buys on a schedule, but only while the score sits inside my range of 10 to 30. The sizing is the dynamic part: the lower the score, the bigger the buy. A parcel at 30 is modest. A parcel at 15 is several times larger. Every one of those decisions was made months ago, on a calm day. The market can’t renegotiate with me at 11pm.
And the same machinery runs in reverse. My plan DCAs out above my exit band. Last cycle, having exits written down was the difference between banking the cycle and round-tripping it. Bitcoin has kept to something very close to a four-year rhythm its whole life. I’m not fading that with vibes.
Where does that leave me this week? Score at 25.6, scheduled buys running inside the band, bigger tiers still waiting for a sub-20 print that hasn’t come. Two weeks of doing nothing new on purpose. Inaction is also a position, and right now it’s mine.
Jake’s Workbench
Big ship this week: My Plans got a full overhaul. Email alerts are live. You can set a portfolio goal and watch it fill. Order logging is two taps, and the portfolio view now shows your average buy price next to the live score. It’s turning into the screen I check instead of the price.
Here’s my own plan, straight from the app:
Three orders logged since late June, 0.2279 BTC toward a 2 BTC goal, average buy A$87,755. Quick caveat so nobody misreads that screen: this plan only tracks what I’ve bought since it went live a few weeks ago. It’s a slice of my stack, not the whole thing. But that’s the system from the section above, running in public, and the record builds from here.
Next on the bench: CSV upload and exchange sync, so order logging gets even easier.
Quick Hits
Altseason chatter is back. My feed’s full of rotation calls. The dial I watch says not yet: alt market cap priced in BTC sits at 0.37, and every prior cycle bottom washed down near 0.25 before alts had their run. Dominance still rising, ETH/BTC still flat. So what: if you’re being pitched an alt rotation this week, ask what benchmark the pitch is measured in.
(TOTAL3 - USDT)/ BTC - Trading View
The Fed meets Wednesday (US time). A hold is priced at roughly 85%, but hike whispers are getting louder. So what: unless your plan depends on next month’s rates, this is noise. Mine doesn’t.
Visa launched a stablecoin platform so banks can issue their own coins without building the plumbing. So what: this is what bear markets are for. The rails get built while nobody’s watching the price.
Morgan Stanley switched on spot BTC, ETH and SOL trading for E*TRADE customers. So what: millions of ordinary brokerage accounts are now one tap from Bitcoin. The next wave of buyers won’t come through crypto Twitter. They’ll come through screens they already use.
The Week Ahead
FOMC decision, Thursday 4am AEST. A hold is mostly priced, so the reaction will be about the language. Expect chop either direction. Chop is not a signal.
The 200-week average, ~US$63.3K. BTC is sitting almost exactly on it. Weekly closes above or below this line are what the whole market is watching.
The sub-20 print. Still zero days below 20 this cycle. That’s the trigger my bigger buy tiers are waiting on. If it arrives, you’ll hear about it here first.
One question built this whole company: “should I buy now?” The honest answer was never a date or a coin. It’s a system that fits your life, sized to your nerves, written down before the market gets loud.
Mine’s above. If you want to build yours, the score and Plan Builder are free:
And I’m curious about the room: hit reply with one number, the percentage of your stack that’s Bitcoin right now. I’ll share the spread next week.
See you then.
Jake
Just want to say been loving your writing.