Fear’s back.
On Saturday Arthur Hayes posted that he’d “dumped it all”, his family office’s whole trading book, because things look “a bit dicey out there in macro and geopolitical land”. It caused carnage on crypto Twitter. Hours later Bitcoin dipped under US$80,000, and more than US$400 million of leveraged bets were wiped out in four hours.
Now people are asking: was the whole rally a fakeout? Is the bear market not over yet?
Here’s my take. Arthur Hayes plays a totally different game to 99.9% of us. Short-term trading is a quick way to go broke, especially when you’re trading off someone else’s calls.
I can’t tell you if Bitcoin will be lower next week. I measure success in years, not weeks. So I checked our score history for what came next after weeks like this.
The short version: every day the CSH Score sat where it is now, Bitcoin was higher two years later. This cycle looks a lot like the last three. And one level would change my mind.
Want a plan that buys through weeks like this without you deciding each time? You can try every feature in the CSH app free for two weeks.
CSH Risk Dashboard
CSH Score: 32.4 this morning, down 0.7 on last Sunday
Bitcoin: about US$80,800, down about 1% on last Sunday
May high: about US$83,000, and Bitcoin is just under it
50-week moving average: about US$76,100
Bull market support band: about US$72,400 to US$76,600
The CSH Score rates where Bitcoin’s price sits in its own history, from 0 to 100. At 32 it’s in the bottom third.
My plan bought again last Monday at a CSH Score of 33.3, and buys again tomorrow. I’ve stacked a few buys between 30 and 35 now, so my dry powder stays parked unless the Score drops under 30.
What our data says about a Score in the low 30s
Since 2012, the CSH Score has sat between 30 and 35 on 214 days that have two full years of history after them.
Two years later, Bitcoin was higher on all 214. The median gain was 191%. The smallest was 47%, from 25 October 2020, six years ago today.
One year later, it was higher on 89% of them. Every miss came in late 2014, in the middle of that bear market. The worst was down 39%.
Nearly half those days came in 2020. The rest are spread over eight other years, from 2013 to 2024.
One warning. Every past CSH Score is worked out with today’s model, after the fact. So this is what happened, with hindsight. It isn’t a promise about the next two years.
Where this cycle sits
From the October 2025 top, Bitcoin fell 53% in 267 days, to about US$58,500 on 1 July. The last three bear markets fell 77% to 85% and took 12 to 13 months. This one was shallower and shorter.
116 days on from that low, Bitcoin is up 38%. At the same point after the last three lows, it was up 37% (2015), 67% (2019) and 42% (2023). Each time, the biggest gains came later.
One difference: the CSH Score is higher now (32.4, against 6.0, 28.4 and 17.6 back then), because this bear didn’t fall as far.
Nobody knows for sure where we are in a cycle while we’re in it. But on the long timeframes I think the structure is still very bullish, and the odds still sit with us being early in a bull market.
The level that would change my mind
A weekly close under the 50-week moving average, about US$76,000. That’s not a good sign, and it could mean this plays out like 2019.
In May 2019, Bitcoin closed back above its 50-week MA and ran to about US$12,900 by late June. In December it closed a week back under it. Then COVID hit, and by March 2020 Bitcoin was down 61% at about US$4,960.
Fast forward to April 2021, and it was about US$63,000, up almost 1,200% from that low.
If that happens again, my plan doesn’t change. It buys every week while the CSH Score is under 45, with bigger orders the lower it goes.
Jake’s Workbench: October in my plan, and a milestone
My plan has bought three times in October (the 5th, 12th and 19th), with the CSH Score at 37.1, 34.0 and 33.3. Tomorrow makes it four. Over the month, Bitcoin has gone from about US$83,600 to US$80,800.
And a milestone: this week one of our founding members made the first payment. Tom and I have worked on Crypto Super Hub for eight months, since it was an idea we kicked around on our walks. It’s not much, but seeing someone pay for something you built is a feeling I won’t forget. The first 100 members lock in A$19 a month for life. After that it’s A$29.
Our iPhone and Android apps are also with Apple and Google for review. They go live once approved.
Quick Hits
Week to Fri 23 Oct: spot Bitcoin ETFs took in a net US$301 million, even after US$636 million went out on Thursday alone.
Sat 24 Oct: US$404 million of leveraged long bets were liquidated in four hours as Bitcoin dipped under US$80,000.
Sat 24 Oct: Arthur Hayes’s family office, Maelstrom, sold about US$22 million of ETH, ENA, UNI and other coins (Lookonchain’s count).
Oil: Brent crude hit about US$114 a barrel, its highest since May.
Treasury: its draft law would have exchanges report Australians’ crypto trades to the ATO every quarter from 1 July 2027. Feedback closes Wednesday.
Week Ahead
Mon 26 Oct, 10am: Bitcoin’s weekly close. The 50-week MA is about US$76,100.
Wed 28 Oct: Australian inflation for the September quarter, and Treasury’s crypto reporting consultation closes.
Thu 29 Oct, 4am: US Fed rate decision. Most economists expect rates to stay at 3.75% to 4.00%.
Thu 29 Oct, late evening: the ECB’s rate decision, then US GDP and PCE inflation.
Fri 30 Oct: Bank of Japan decision. At 6pm, the monthly Bitcoin options expiry on Deribit.
Sat 31 Oct: first annual return due for SMSFs set up last financial year, the Mt Gox repayment deadline, and CSH’s pre-launch trials end at midnight.
The Close
Nobody knows where Bitcoin will be next week, and I don’t try to guess. I care about where it’ll be in a few years. I strongly believe it’ll be a lot higher, and our history backs that up.
So when the timeline panics because someone famous sold, I check my plan. Last Monday it bought, and tomorrow it buys again.
If you joined before our Score upgrade, your trial ends at midnight Saturday. Add a card before then to keep your plans running. If you don’t, they stay in your account, read-only.
What would make you change your plan? Hit reply with 1, 2 or 3:
A weekly close under the 50-week MA
A CSH Score under 20
Nothing, I’m in this for years
Want your own plan doing this for you? Try every feature in the CSH app free for two weeks.
Crypto Super Hub is general information and education only. Nothing here is financial advice, and it doesn’t take your objectives, financial situation or needs into account. Crypto is volatile and you can lose money. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. Do your own research and consider speaking with a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions. We hold Bitcoin ourselves, so assume we’re biased.