Pay Yourself First

The boring strategy that turns $100K into $2.9M

Feb 22, 2026

Crypto Super Hub | Weekly Market Intelligence | Feb 22, 2026

Pay Yourself First

I listened to a great podcast this week with David Bach on “the automatic millionaire equation.” At first, the name made me cringe. But as I stuck with the episode, I realised his core philosophy aligns almost perfectly with what we’re building at Crypto Super Hub.

Here’s what stood out, and how I’m applying it to my crypto investing:

Pay yourself first. The first hour of every working day, you pay yourself before paying anyone else. Take 10% of your income and automatically set it aside.

Invest it. David recommends index funds. But here at CSH, we aren’t satisfied with 10% annual returns. We want real financial freedom. So we DCA that into BTC. Over the last 10 years, Bitcoin has averaged annualised returns of around 65%.

Let’s do the math. Say you’re earning $100K per year. Take 10% = $10K and invest that into BTC. At 65% annualised average returns over 10 years, that $100K becomes $2.9 million. Not from moonshots. Not from timing the market. From a recurring buy order.

This really hit home because I realised I wasn’t paying myself first. I was paying tax, mortgage, bills, and expenses first and paying myself last. That’s changing now.

So where does the market sit right now? Let’s check the dashboard.

CSH Risk Dashboard

Current Risk Scores:

Asset Risk Score Signal

BTC 0.311 🟡 Lean Accumulation
ETH 0.430 ⚪ Neutral
XRP 0.434 ⚪ Neutral
BNB 0.292 🟢 Accumulation Zone
SOL 0.333 🟡 Lean Accumulation
LINK 0.256 🟢 Accumulation Zone

Key Risk Indicators:

Fear & Greed Index: 8 (Extreme Fear)
BTC Price: ~$67,000 (7d: relatively flat)
BTC Dominance: 58.23%
Total Market Cap: $2.334T
ETH/BTC Ratio: 0.02895

Jake’s Read:

Both price and risk levels have been pretty flat on the week, indicating relatively low volatility after the sharp drop to $60K on Feb 6th. This pattern is typical for bear markets: sharp drop, a few weeks of consolidation, counter-trend rally, then another leg down.

If history rhymes, we consolidate here, rally into March forming a lower high, then dump again into April/May. This same structure played out in 2014, 2018, and (with slight variation) 2022.

2018: Feb low, March rally, April dump.

2022: Feb low, March rally, May dump.

2026: If history rhymes, we’re in the consolidation phase right now.

But we all know that speculating about local price moves in a bear market is a fool’s errand. Nobody really knows how it plays out. Which is exactly why we built a structured risk framework to take the guesswork out of it.

Risk scores are sitting in accumulation and lean accumulation territory across the board. BNB at 0.292 and LINK at 0.256 are deep in the accumulation zone, while ETH and XRP sit in neutral at 0.43. The playbook: keep DCA-ing, keep stacking, don’t try to be a hero catching the exact low.

The One Thing That Actually Matters

The risk framework tells us where we are. But how do you actually deploy capital? That’s the question I get asked more than any other.

My best-performing crypto asset isn’t what you’d expect

People often ask me what my best performer is. I’ve been in crypto for 5+ years now, so they expect it’s some 100x moonshot. Some absolute degen shitcoin that printed while I slept.

The answer usually surprises them.

It’s the BTC I started DCA-ing into my SMSF (think self-directed 401K) back in early 2023. I set up a recurring monthly buy order. Set and forget.

Even now, after a 50% drawdown from the highs, I’m still up significantly and have built a solid BTC position for my retirement fund.

Every orange dot is a monthly DCA buy into my SMSF. Started in early 2023. Even after a 50% drawdown from the highs, still up significantly.

DCA is incredibly powerful. But most people ignore it because it’s boring. And that’s the thing. The best-performing investments usually aren’t exciting or sexy. They’re deadset boring.

But boring compounds.

Measure your gains against BTC, not dollars

After getting absolutely rekt in 2022, I spent the next few years watching altcoins bleed against BTC. No altseason. Just a slow, painful grind lower on the ratios.

That changed how I think about risk. I used to measure my gains in dollars. Now I measure them against BTC. Because if your alts aren’t outperforming Bitcoin, you’re taking on more risk for less return. That’s not a trade. That’s a bad deal.

BTC should be the foundation of any crypto portfolio. Not the thing you buy after you’ve already allocated to 15 altcoins.

This doesn’t mean you can never rotate into alts. But you pick your spots. In April 2025, Trump launched tariffs, the market tanked, and the ETH/BTC ratio hit a 5-year low. I bought ETH around $2K. It proceeded to pump over 250% in a few months.

But I only had the capital to take that shot because I hadn’t poured everything into altcoins that bled for four years straight. BTC was my foundation. The dry powder came from discipline, not luck.

Taking DCA further: dynamic risk-based investing

So I started thinking about how to take DCA further.

Standard DCA is great. It’s automatic, it compounds, and it smooths out the insane volatility of crypto markets. But there are clear cycles and patterns in BTC price action. I didn’t want to just buy the same amount every month regardless of where we were in the cycle.

I wanted a system that would force me to be disciplined, because I knew I couldn’t trust myself in the heat of the moment.

That’s when a mate and I started experimenting with dynamic DCA and risk levels.

The concept: instead of allocating a fixed amount, what if you had a risk metric that measured current market conditions? When risk is low, you increase your DCA. Stack more during periods of extreme fear. When risk is elevated, you pull back.

The buying part is the easy side. Psychologically, we’re wired to be optimists. Buying an asset you believe in at a discount feels great.

But selling? That’s where it gets brutal. The ever-optimistic monkey brain kicks in: “Just hold a bit longer. Instead of a Corolla you might afford a Lambo.” I’ve been there. Watching my portfolio hit numbers I never imagined, telling myself “one more leg up.” That voice gets loudest right before it all comes crashing down.

So on the flip side, you can dynamically DCA out as the market heats up. The risk score dictates your sells. You scale out of your position as risk increases, taking the emotion out of the hardest decision in investing.

That’s what we’re building at Crypto Super Hub. If you want to see these risk scores in real-time and build your own DCA plan around them, make sure you subscribe to join the waitlist.

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Jake’s Workbench

Tool of the Week: Claude Pro + Notion

If you’ve spent any time on X the last few weeks, you’ll have been inundated with Mac Mini + OpenClaw content. I haven’t set up an AI agent yet, but I have spent the last few weeks levelling up my AI game.

My take: before you build your own bot, there’s a lot more value to extract from existing tools. I’ve been maxing out Claude Pro almost every day, using it as the brain alongside Notion as the memory and database. Claude does the thinking, Notion stores everything and keeps it organised. Together they’ve become my project and content engine. Truly a game changer.

My top AI tips:

Don’t be a tight ass and use the free versions. Fork out the $30/month for Claude Pro (use Opus 4.6) and ChatGPT Pro. Experiment with both. The free versions are holding you back.

Don’t jump straight into building agents. Most people can get 80-90% of what they need by using existing tools in a smart way. Build your AI foundation first.

Spend an hour each day pushing the models. Try complex tasks. Don’t just ask it to rewrite your emails. You’ll be surprised at what these tools can actually do.

Strategy Update: No buys this week. Mostly sitting on my hands. Last buy was Feb 6th for a decent chunk of BTC. Most of my portfolio is in BTC, with a small ETH position and a fair bit of cash/dry powder to deploy over the next 6 months.

Observation: The easy part of the bear market is over. The initial 50% drop is in and now it’s a patience game. Cash is king and patience is the name of the game. Zooming out, I think current risk levels are a great point to start DCA-ing into BTC. My base case is we go lower eventually. But in 5-10 years, buying $60K Bitcoin will look like the steal of the century.

Quick Hits: What Else You Should Know

US-Iran is the macro wildcard no one’s pricing correctly. The largest US air force buildup in the Middle East since the 2003 Iraq invasion is now underway. Two carrier strike groups, 120+ aircraft surged in days including F-35s and F-22s, and the Pentagon has briefed Trump on strike options ranging from targeted hits to weeks-long campaigns. Iran is fortifying nuclear sites and running naval ops in the Strait of Hormuz, where 20% of global oil flows. Military escalation means oil spikes, risk-off selling, and BTC pressure. This is the biggest short-term threat to every risk asset on the planet right now.

Supreme Court strikes down Trump’s tariffs. SCOTUS ruled 6-3 that Trump’s IEEPA tariffs were unconstitutional. Trump signed a replacement 10% global tariff the same day, so this isn’t a clean win. But up to $175B in corporate refunds could act as accidental stimulus, and the legal precedent limits future executive tariff power. Less tariff revenue likely means more money printing. The exact macro backdrop Bitcoin was built for.

ETF outflows continue, but read the fine print. Bitcoin spot ETFs shed another $133M, with over $3B out in recent weeks. Sounds dire, but 55-75% of ETF holders are market makers and arb funds, not long-term believers. Their exit is noise. Meanwhile, average ETF cost basis sits at ~$84K. Weak hands are shaking out, and that’s how floors get built.

CLARITY Act could hit Congress by April. Senator Moreno says the crypto market structure bill is on fast-track, with the Senate Banking Committee meeting almost daily. If passed, it ends the SEC vs CFTC turf war and gives institutions the regulatory green light they’ve been waiting for. Pair with GENIUS Act stablecoin rules going live in July. The regulatory landscape by year-end looks nothing like today.

BlockFills suspends withdrawals after $75M loss. Susquehanna-backed crypto lender halted client withdrawals and is now exploring a fire sale. Echoes of Celsius and BlockFi, though contagion looks contained so far. A timely reminder that counterparty risk never sleeps. Know where your funds sit, and don’t chase yield blindly.

The Week Ahead: What to Watch

US-Iran deadline looms. Trump gave Iran “10-15 days” to agree a deal and that window is closing now. Secretary Rubio is heading to Israel on Feb 28 to meet Netanyahu and brief him on the Geneva talks. Any escalation sends oil higher and risk assets lower. Any deal or de-escalation could trigger a sharp relief rally across the board. This is the single most important variable for all markets next week.

Bitcoin for Corporations summit (Feb 24-25, Las Vegas). Strategy’s (formerly MicroStrategy) flagship corporate Bitcoin event at The Wynn targets CFOs and institutional investors exploring BTC as a treasury asset. Watch for any new corporate adoption announcements. In this fear environment, a single headline could shift sentiment fast.

BTC $65K support: the line in the sand. Bitcoin has held the $65-70K range for two weeks. A sustained close below $65K on volume opens the door to $58K. A reclaim of $70K signals the selling may be exhausting itself. If you’re DCA-ing, neither scenario changes your plan. But knowing where the tripwires are keeps you from panicking.

Final Word

Extreme fear is still the dominant emotion right now. And that’s okay. Fear is loudest when opportunity is closest.

The playbook hasn’t changed: pay yourself first, DCA into BTC using a risk framework, and let boring compound while everyone else chases the next 100x that never comes.

If you want a system to take the emotion out of investing, that’s exactly what we’re building. Join the Crypto Super Hub waitlist by subscribing to this newsletter.

If this issue was useful, share it with a mate who needs to hear it. It’s free, and it might change how they think about investing.

See you next week.

Jake